Evaluating power generation efficiency and CO2 reduction potential of coal-fired thermal power plants in China based on microdata

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K20511
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 64060:Environmental policy and social systems-related
• Research Institution: Fukuoka University
• Principal Investigator: Eguchi Shogo 福岡大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (00823973)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: データ包絡分析法 / 中国 / 石炭火力発電所 / カーボンニュートラル / 地域間格差

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, an analytical framework using meta-frontier DEA was applied to power generation data at the coal-fired power plant level in China to evaluate power generation efficiency and analyze sources of inefficiency. Specifically, the study succeeded in quantifying how much disparity in power generation efficiency exist between different power plant sizes, different regions in which they are located, and different power generation companies that operate the plants. In addition, considering the emission data of environmentally hazardous substances such as CO2 and PM2.5 for each power plant, the study also clarified which environmentally hazardous substances each power generation company should focus on reducing.
In addition, by combining the LMDI method with the DEA framework described above, this study was able to quantify the the impact of changes in efficiency over time on changes in mass-based CO2 emissions.

Free Research Field

環境経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究成果により明らかになった中国の石炭火力発電所の非効率性の要因を基に、世界最大のCO2排出国である中国が今後カーボンニュートラルを推し進めるにあたって、どのようなプランで火力発電所をスクラップしていくべきかという道筋を提案することができた。加えて、発電会社間での積極的な技術面や暗黙知の共有が発電効率性の改善には不可欠であることも示された。
また、本研究の学術的な意義としては、既存のDEAフレームワークを多層型のメタフロンティア構造に拡張することによって、分析目的に応じた非効率性の見える化が可能な分析フレームワークを提案したことにある。