Effective Boost to Fertility: Policy Evaluation and Policy Design

2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K20891
• Project/Area Number (Other): 18H05690 (2018)
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund (2019); Single-year Grants (2018)
• Review Section: 0107:Economics, business administration, and related fields
• Research Institution: Waseda University
• Principal Investigator: Wang Tong 早稲田大学, 高等研究所, 講師(任期付) (30822267)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-08-24 – 2021-03-31
• Keywords: Fertility / Employment / Subsidy / Japan / Nuclear power plant / Census

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The main purpose of this study is to find effective means for raising the birth rate in Japan. We tested whether changes in economic conditions due to the operation of nuclear power plants influenced the decision-making of residents to have children. The operation of nuclear power plants can cause a large impact on the local economy through the channel of (1) job creation and (2) improvement of administrative services from local governments to residents. We estimated the effects of (1) and (2) on the fertility rate in the area where the nuclear power plant was constructed, using econometric methods. As a result of the analysis, we found that the operation of the nuclear power plant (1) improves the fertility rate of residents by 10% through the creation of employment. This result was presented at several academic conferences and published as a working paper.

Free Research Field

ミクロ経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、日本のいくつかの地域で過去に起きた大きな経済状況の変化（原子力産業という一大産業の立地）が住民の子どもをつくるかどうかの意思決定に与えた影響を分析することで、現在日本で重要な政策課題となっている少子化対策のためのエビデンスを提供するものである。また、出生に関する意思決定に影響を与える重要な要因は雇用状況なのか政府から世帯への資金援助なのか、という学術的な問いに答えるものである。