Correction of Fraud in Disaster Policies

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K21683
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Medium-sized Section 6:Political science and related fields
• Research Institution: Gakushuin University
• Principal Investigator: Kentaro Fukumoto 学習院大学, 法学部, 教授 (50272414)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 菊田 恭輔 独立行政法人日本貿易振興機構アジア経済研究所, 地域研究センターアフリカ研究グループ, 研究員 (70865196)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-06-28 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 災害復旧事業費 / 選挙 / 災害関連死 / 新型コロナウイルス / 休校

Outline of Final Research Achievements

(1) We found that if the annual disaster recovery project expenditure per voter increased from zero to the average (7,704 yen), the ruling party's vote share would increase by 2.8 percentage points in the lower house election and by 5.4 percentage points in the upper house election, respectively. (2) After the Kumamoto earthquake, Kumamoto City and Otsu Town were found to have recognized cases of deaths related to the earthquake earlier, while Mashiki Town and Uki City were found to have done so later. (3) We found no evidence that municipalities that implemented school closures had fewer new cases of COVID-19 than those that did not.

Free Research Field

政治学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

(1)災害という不幸の結果として、財政支出の増加があると、無意識にかそれを恩義に感じて与党に票を投じる人が増える。(2) データ分析が難しい関連死認定の他の側面（例えば、人数の多寡、認定基準、審査委員の傾向など）についても、市町村による違いがあったのではないだろうか、ということが示唆される。(3)学校の休校の副作用を考えれば、感染症の蔓延に際して、非薬理的対策として学校を休校にするのは、慎重に再検討する必要がある。