Population attributable risk estimation for major cause of death associated with family history in Japanese

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K24186
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: 0908:Society medicine, nursing, and related fields
• Research Institution: National Cancer Center Japan
• Principal Investigator: Tanaka Shiori 国立研究開発法人国立がん研究センター, がん対策研究所, 研究員 (60848381)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-02-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 家族歴 / がん / 循環器疾患 / 糖尿病 / 人口寄与割合 / 日本

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In Japan, it has been reported to what extent known modifiable factors explain deaths from the major diseases cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes mellitus, but little is known about the contribution of family history to the major causes of death. In this study, population attributable fractions (PAF), morbidity, and mortality associated with family history for cancer, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes in the Japanese population were estimated. Because family history of diseases is different by birth cohort, PAF, incidence, and deaths of all cancers and type 2 diabetes increased in the new birth cohort compared to the old birth cohort. On the other hand, the number of cardiovascular disease cases and deaths remained unchanged in recent years, indicating that there was no significant difference between the old and new birth cohort. Further accumulation of knowledge on family history is needed, as important data such as prevalence rates are insufficient.

Free Research Field

疫学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

リスク要因の大きさを測定する指標として使用されている相対危険度だけでは実際に国民にどの程度のインパクトを与えているのか考察するには不十分である。そこで、本研究では保有率と相対危険を複合的に測定することができる人口寄与割合という手法を用いることで、家族歴という要因が罹患および死亡にどの程度影響を与えているのか絶対値を推計することが大きな強みである。