Environmental impacts in mining countries induced by global energy transitions

2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K24391
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: 1101:Environmental analyses and evaluation, environmental conservation measure and related fields
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: Watari Takuma 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 資源循環・廃棄物研究センター, 研究員 (10845811)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-08-30 – 2021-03-31
• Keywords: 脱炭素 / 物質フロー / 鉱山開発

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study shows that the decarbonization of both the electricity and transport sectors will curtail fossil fuel production while paradoxically increasing resource extraction associated with metal production by more than a factor of 7 by 2050 relative to 2015 levels. Importantly, we find that approximately 32-40% of this increase in resource extraction is expected to occur in countries with weak, poor, and failing resource governance, indicating that the impending mining boom may result in severe environmental degradation and lower economic growth, rather than benefiting local communities. A suite of circular economy strategies, including lifetime extension, servitization, and recycling, can mitigate such risks, but they may not fully offset the growth in resource extraction. Our findings underscore the importance of institutional instruments that enhance the resource governance of entire low-carbon technology supply chains, along with circular economy practices.

Free Research Field

環境システム学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

脱炭素技術導入の背後で管理すべき資源量が増加するという、これまで見過ごされていたトレードオフの可能性を明らかにした点が本研究の重要な貢献の一つである。これにより、持続可能な資源利用を伴った気候変動緩和策の重要性を広く国際社会に発信することが出来た。加えて、本研究で明らかになった注視すべき鉱種・技術・国という情報は、消費側からの有効な介入策を検討する際の優先順位付けに利用可能である。