2020 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
ＵｎｃｏｎｖｅｎｔｉｏｎａｌＭｏｎｅｔａｒｙＰｏｌｉｃｙａｔｔｈｅＩｎｔｅｒｅｓｔＲａｔｅＬｏｗｅｒＢｏｕｎｄ
| Project/Area Number |
19K24682
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
仲田 泰祐 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 准教授 (40867785)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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| Keywords | 金融政策 / マクロ経済 / ゼロ金利 / 中央銀行 / 最適政策 |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
I dedicated most of my research time to "Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps : Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy" with Sebastian Schmidt. We had many substantial requests from the referees of the American Economic Journal : Macroeconomics. We extended our model so that we can simultaneously consider both fundamental and sunspot shocks. We built a non-linear version of the model. We considered non-minimum-state-variable equilibria. We conducted many additional sensitivity analyses. We found that our key results are robust to various model specifications.
Sebastian presented this paper at various seminars and conferences. The paper was accepted by the American Economic Journal : Macroeconomics on April 2021.
"A Promised Value Approach to Optimal Monetary Policy" (2020) with Takeki Sunakawa was accepted by the Oxford Bulleting of Economics and Statistics on May 2020.
I have made progress in polishing "Credible Forward Guidance" with Takeki Sunakawa. I presented the paper at VEAMS a
… More
nd an invited seminar by the Central bank of Chile. We recently added an analysis of how (1) the set of allocations under optimal sustainable policies indexed by the punishment duration and (2) the set of allocations under average inflation targeting rules indexed by the averaging window are related. We will submit this paper to a journal in the near future.
I have made progress on "Average Inflation Targeting and the Interest Rate Lower Bound" with Flora Budianto and Sebastian Schmidt. We have recently started investigation of average inflation targeting rules in a quantitative model. Our quantitative model features multiple shocks, sticky wages, and price indexation. The addition of this quantitative analysis will have a huge payoff in terms of our publication prospect. Once we finish the task, we will submit the paper to a journal. Sebastian and Flora presented this paper at many seminars and conferences over the past 12 months.
I have made progress on "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound : Assessing the Federal Reserve's Current Policy Toolkit" with Hess Chung, Etienne Gagnon, Matthias Paustian, Bernd Schlusche, James Trevino, Diego Vilan, and Wei Zheng. In this project, I play a role of an adviser. I had several meeting with my coauthors over the past 12 months. They are working on improving the model to more concisely capture the dynamics of the central bank's balance sheet variables, including the evolution of Treasury bonds with various maturities and mortgage-backed securities. I advised them on their modelling efforts. The improved model will be not only a valuable contribution to the literature, but also will become a useful machinery for policy analysis.
I have made some progress on "Deflationary Equilibrium under Uncertainty." I hired a research assistant this summer to extend the analysis into a fully nonlinear model. We found that the results we obtained under the semi-loglinear model are robust to the use of a fully nonlinear model. Another research assistant worked on the theory part of the paper. Based on his careful analysis, various loose ends in the previous version of the paper have been tightened up. We plan to finish the first draft of the paper by the end of the year. Less
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
As stated above, I have published one paper in a top-field journal (AEJ : Macro) and one paper in a good general-interest journal (OBES).
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
I will continue to work on research on monetary policy. In particular, I will submit "Credible Forward Guidance" and "Average Inflation Targeting and the Interest Rate Lower Bound" to journals by the end of 2021. I will also finish the first draft of "Deflationary Equilibrium under Uncertainty."
I began working with Andrew Levin (Dartmouth U) and Arunima Sinha (Fordham U) on "Endogenous Credibility."
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| Causes of Carryover |
Some of the travel expenses I intended to use before march 2021 were not used due to Covid-19.
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