2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Social optimal design on the subsidy scheme utilizing advanced IoT technology to protect the elderly from an influenza pandemic

Research Project

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Project/Area Number	19KK0262
Research Category	Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research (B))
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Review Section	Medium-sized Section 62:Applied informatics and related fields
Research Institution	Kyushu University
Principal Investigator	Tanimoto Jun 九州大学, 総合理工学研究院, 教授 (60227238)
Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha)	一ノ瀬元喜静岡大学, 工学部, 准教授 (70550276) 伊東啓長崎大学, 熱帯医学研究所, 准教授 (80780692)
Project Period (FY)	2019-10-07 – 2024-03-31
Keywords	数理疫学 / マルチエージェントシミュレーション / Vaccination Game / Intervention Game / 進化ゲーム理論 / 社会最適
Outline of Final Research Achievements	To minimize the holistic social cost, composed of not only disease cost but also costs of various interventions such as vaccination, quarantine, lockdown, and other various non-pharmaceutical measures, the theoretical framework, named ‘Intervention Game’ (IG), the revised concept of Vaccination Game, is established. IG dovetails an epidemiological ODE model such as SIR, SEIR and SEIRS that is suitable for a macroscopic prediction for a disease spreading with the so-called Behavior model where the social dynamics of an individual’s decision-making of whether to commit a vaccination or not. Furthermore, the framework of IG is built up as ‘Huge MAS (multi-agent simulation)’ system to draw a more realistic numerical prediction accounting for various complex situations such as complex real human networks on which a disease spreads and virtual networks influencing an individual’s decision-making through information spread.
Free Research Field	社会物理学
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	数理生物学をバックグラウンドにする世界最先端COE研究者と数理疫学，公衆衛生学，情報科学を専門にする本邦側若手アカデミックの協働が，社会物理学者（研究代表者）がmediator役と務めることで可能となった．プロジェクト成果としての論文発表は，プロジェクト期間中ながら既に30編を超える高い生産性を示した．感染症伝搬は，人間社会の複雑ネットワークを通じて生起する現象としての側面を有するが，本プロジェクトにより，原因側で元を絶つ，罹患する生体側で防御する対策と並んで，経路となる社会システムを適切に制御することで，感染を封じ込め，パンデミックを未然に防ぐ対策を構築できる可能性があることが示された．