2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Construction of the foundations of statistical earthquake prediction research
| Project/Area Number |
20240027
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Statistical science
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| Research Institution | The Institute of Statistical Mathematics |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
TANEMURA Masaharu , 統計数理研究所, 教授 (80000214)
TODA Shinji 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (80313047)
ZHUANG Jiancang , 統計数理研究所, 助教 (70465920)
IWATA Takaki 早稲田大学, 国際教養学部, 助教 (80000214)
NANJO Kazuyoshi 東京大学, 地震研究所, 特任助教 (80000214)
TSURUOKA Hiroshi 東京大学, 地震研究所, 助教 (10280562)
TAMURA Yoshiyasu , 統計数理研究所, 教授 (60150033)
SATO Seisho , 統計数理研究所, 准教授 (60280525)
KAWASAKI Yoshinori , 統計数理研究所, 准教授 (70249910)
SHIMAZAKI Kunihiko 東京大学, 地震研究所, 名誉教授 (50012951)
MASE Shigeru 東京工業大学, 情報理工学研究科, 教授 (70108190)
SHIBATA Ritei 慶応義塾大学, 理工学部, 教授 (60089828)
ANDREA Llenos M. I. T., STUDENT
SEBASTIAN Hainzl GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Researcher
JEFFREY J. McGuire Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution(米), Associate Scientist
DAVID Vere-Jones Victoria University of Wellington, Emeritus Professor
Adelfio Giada University of Palermo, Post Doc. Fellow
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| Project Period (FY) |
2008 – 2010
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| Keywords | ETASモデル / 地震活動静穏化・活発化 / クーロン破壊ストレス / GPS測地データ / 階層ベイズ時空間ETASモデル |
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| Research Abstract |
発音に基づく入力を有効にするWe established a method of analysis that can detect and test the quiescence or activation, relative to the predicted seismic activity using the ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence) related models. We studied spatial patterns of deviations of seismicity from the forecast of seismic activity, and demonstrated the relationship between the crustal stress changes due to aseismic slip in the fault. Deviation of such seismic activity may be useful as a sensitive sensor of changes in crustal strain, and can be verified the consistency with the crustal deformation by GPS data and these phenomena. The results urged further operational studies to elucidate processes of earthquake precursor.
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Research Products
(46 results)
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[Journal Article] Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes : Their influences on foreshock probabilities2008
Author(s)
Zhuang, J., Christophersen, A., Savage, M. K., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y., and Jackson, D. D.
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Journal Title
J. Geophys. Res.
Volume: 113
Pages: B11302
DOI
Peer Reviewed
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