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2012 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Bayesian modeling for actuary and finance

Research Project

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Project/Area Number 20243017
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Economic statistics
Research InstitutionKeio University

Principal Investigator

NAKATSUMA Teruo  慶應義塾大学, 経済学部, 教授 (90303049)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) SUGITA Katsuhiro  琉球大学, 法文学部, 准教授 (50377058)
TANIZAKI Hisashi  大阪大学, 経済学研究科(研究院), 教授 (60248101)
KOGURE Atsuyuki  慶應義塾大学, 総合政策学部, 教授 (80178251)
ASAI Manabu  創価大学, 経済学部, 教授 (90319484)
Project Period (FY) 2008 – 2012
Keywords経済統計学 / ベイズ分析 / アクチュアリー / ファイナンス / リスク分析
Research Abstract

In this research project, we studied new Bayesian methods for quantitative riskassessments in actuary and finance. We achieved satisfactory results in modeling therisk of losses related to internal mishandling in financial institutions (operationalrisk)

  • Research Products

    (21 results)

All 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 6 results) Presentation (9 results) Book (5 results)

  • [Journal Article] Alternative asymmetric stochasticvolatility models2011

    • Author(s)
      Manabu Asai and Michael McAleer
    • Journal Title

      EconometricReviews

      Volume: 30 Pages: 548-564

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A Bayesian approach to pricinglongevity risk based on risk-neutralpredictive distributions2010

    • Author(s)
      Atsuyuki Kogure and Yoshiyuki Kurachi
    • Journal Title

      Insurance: Mathematics and Economics

      Volume: 46 Pages: 162-172

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The structure of dynamic correlationswith multivariate stochasticvolatility models2009

    • Author(s)
      Manabu Asai and Michael McAleer
    • Journal Title

      Journal ofEconometrics

      Volume: 150 Pages: 182-192

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A Bayesian modelaveraging approach for portfolioselection2009

    • Author(s)
      Teruo Nakatsuma
    • Journal Title

      MTEC Journal

      Volume: 21 Pages: 3-41

  • [Journal Article] Volatility transmission betweenJapan, UK and USA in daily stockreturns2009

    • Author(s)
      Hisashi Tanizaki and Shigeyuki Hamori
    • Journal Title

      Empirical Economics

      Volume: 36 Pages: 27-54

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Aportfolio index GARCH model2008

    • Author(s)
      Manabu Asai and Michael McAleer
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Forecasting

      Volume: 24 Pages: 449-461

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Bayesian analysisof a vector autoregressive model withmultiple structural breaks2008

    • Author(s)
      Katsuhiro Sugita
    • Journal Title

      Economics Bulletin

      Volume: 3 Pages: 1-7

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Parallel particlelearning for Bayesian state spacemodeling2012

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Katsura, Kenichiro McAlinn,Teruo Nakatsuma
    • Organizer
      CSDA InternationalConference on Computational Financeand Econometrics
    • Place of Presentation
      オビエド(スペイン)
    • Year and Date
      2012-12-03
  • [Presentation] A multivariateBayesian framework for pricingreverse mortgages in Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      Atsuyuki Kogure
    • Organizer
      EighthInternational Longevity Risk andCapital markets Solutions Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      University ofWaterloo (カナダ)
    • Year and Date
      2012-09-08
  • [Presentation] Heterogeneous marketseffects for asymmetric dynamicconditional correlation model withstock return and range2011

    • Author(s)
      Manabu Asai
    • Organizer
      CSDAInternational Conference onComputational Finance andEconometrics
    • Place of Presentation
      ロンドン(イギリス)
    • Year and Date
      2011-12-19
  • [Presentation] Continuous timedynamic correlation model2011

    • Author(s)
      Manabu Asai
    • Organizer
      European Meetings of Econometric Society
    • Place of Presentation
      オスロ(ノルウェー)
    • Year and Date
      2011-08-27
  • [Presentation] Bayesian riskassessment with threshold mixtureextreme value models2010

    • Author(s)
      Teruo Nakatsuma
    • Organizer
      CSDAInternational Conference onComputational Finance andEconometrics
    • Place of Presentation
      ロンドン(イギリス)
    • Year and Date
      2010-12-10
  • [Presentation] Stochastic CovarianceModels2010

    • Author(s)
      Manabu Asai
    • Organizer
      Econometric Society WorldCongress 2010
    • Place of Presentation
      上海(中国)
    • Year and Date
      2010-08-20
  • [Presentation] A numerical Bayesian technique for pricing insuranceand financial risk with applications to longevity-linked security valuation2010

    • Author(s)
      Atsuyuki Kogure
    • Organizer
      World Risk and Insurance Economics Congress
    • Place of Presentation
      シンガポール(シンガポール)
    • Year and Date
      2010-07-26
  • [Presentation] A full Bayesianimplementation of the Black-Littermanapproach2010

    • Author(s)
      Teruo Nakatsuma
    • Organizer
      The 9th Columbia-JAFEEInternational Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      ニューヨーク(アメリカ)
    • Year and Date
      2010-03-10
  • [Presentation] Modeling andforecasting daily volatility withnoisy realized volatility measures2008

    • Author(s)
      Manabu Asai
    • Organizer
      Far Eastern Meeting of the EconometricSociety
    • Place of Presentation
      シンガポール(シンガポール)
    • Year and Date
      2008-07-16
  • [Book] 実践ベイズ統計学2013

    • Author(s)
      中妻照雄
    • Total Pages
      180
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
  • [Book] 第13章「階層ベイズ・モデルによる資本コストの推定-主観確率に基づく企業価値評価の試み」『応用計量経済学ハンドブック』2010

    • Author(s)
      中妻照雄, 蓑谷千凰彦・牧厚志
    • Total Pages
      455-496
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
  • [Book] Rによる統計データ分析入門2009

    • Author(s)
      小暮厚之
    • Total Pages
      162
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
  • [Book] 第8章「生命表の統計学」, 『21世紀の統計科学I:社会・経済の統計科学』2008

    • Author(s)
      小暮厚之・長谷川知弘,国友直人・山本拓
    • Total Pages
      199-222
    • Publisher
      東京大学出版会
  • [Book] StructuralVAR approach to the sources ofexchange rate fluctuations insub-Saharan African countries, Economics of Developing Countries2008

    • Author(s)
      Shigeyuki Hamori and Hisashi Tanizaki, T.N. Calderia eds.
    • Total Pages
      1-17
    • Publisher
      Nova Science Publishers

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Published: 2014-08-29  

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