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2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Space-time statistical models for detecting emerging outbreaks of rare events.

Research Project

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Project/Area Number 20300101
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Statistical science
Research InstitutionNational Institute of Public Health

Principal Investigator

TANGO Toshiro  National Institute of Public Health, 生活機構研究科, 客員教授 (70124477)

Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) TAKAHASHI Kunihiko  国立保健医療科学院, 技術評価部, 主任研究官 (50323259)
Project Period (FY) 2008 – 2010
Keywords空間・環境統計 / 症侯サーベイランス / 空間疫学
Research Abstract

We have developed new statistical models as important tools for detecting emerging outbreaks of rare events threatening human health. The existing methods cannot detect irregularly shaped outbreak areas timely and appropriately. First, we developed a new restricted likelihood ratio to avoid the property of existing scan statistics that tend to detect the cluster much larger than the true cluster by swallowing neighboring regions with non-elevated risk. Second, we developed a new space-time scan statistic which compares the observed number of cases with the unconditional expected number of cases, takes a time-to-time variation of Poisson mean into account and implements an outbreak model to capture localized emerging disease outbreaks more timely and correctly. The proposed models are illustrated with data from weekly surveillance of the number of absentees in primary schools in Kita-Kyushu, Japan, 2006.

  • Research Products

    (10 results)

All 2011 2010 2009 2008 Other

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results) Presentation (3 results) Book (2 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] A space-time scan statistic for detecting emerging outbreaks.2011

    • Author(s)
      Tango T, Takahashi K, Kohriyama K.
    • Journal Title

      Statistics in Medicine 67

      Pages: 106-115

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Assignment of grouped exposure levels for trend estimation in a regression analysis of summarized data2010

    • Author(s)
      Takahashi K., Tango T.
    • Journal Title

      Statistics in Medicine 29

      Pages: 2605-2616

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Temporal trends and geographic clusters of mortality from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Japan, 1995-2004.2010

    • Author(s)
      Doi Y, Yokoyama T, Tango T, Takahashi K, Fujimoto K, Nakano I
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Neurological Sciences 298

      Pages: 78-84

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A spatial scan statistic with a restricted likelihood ratio.2008

    • Author(s)
      Tango T.
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Journal of Biometrics 29

      Pages: 75-95

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Geographical clustering of caries prevalence on 3-year-old children in Hokkaido2010

    • Author(s)
      Aida J, Takahashi K, Yamaoka K, Tango T
    • Organizer
      国際疫学会西太平洋地域学術会議、第20回日本疫学会学術総会
    • Place of Presentation
      埼玉県立大学
    • Year and Date
      2010-01-10
  • [Presentation] Space-Time Scan Statistics for Outbreak Detection.2009

    • Author(s)
      Tango T.
    • Organizer
      Invited Paper of The 57th Session of the International Statistics Institute, at International Convention Center
    • Place of Presentation
      Durban, South Africa.
    • Year and Date
      2009-08-18
  • [Presentation] A spatial scan statistic with a modified likelihood ratio.2008

    • Author(s)
      Tango T.
    • Organizer
      The 25th International Biometric Conference, at University College Dublin
    • Place of Presentation
      Dublin, Ireland.
    • Year and Date
      20080713-20080718
  • [Book] Statistical Methods for Disease Clustering2010

    • Author(s)
      丹後俊郎
    • Total Pages
      240
    • Publisher
      Springer
  • [Book] 医学統計学の事典(小西貞則 編)2010

    • Author(s)
      丹後俊郎
    • Total Pages
      472
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
  • [Remarks] Takahashi K, Yokoyama T, Tango T. FleXScan ver.3.1: Software for the Flexible Spatial Scan Statistic, National Institute of Public Health, Japan, 2010.

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Published: 2012-01-26   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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