2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
METHODOLOGY AND ITS IMPROVEMENT OF LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
| Project/Area Number |
20300296
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Geography
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| Research Institution | Senshu University |
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Principal Investigator |
ESAKI Yuji Senshu University, 文学部, 教授 (40282503)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
NISHIOKA Hachiro 国立社会保障, 人口問題研究所・人口構造研究部, 部長 (50415824)
KOIKE Shiro 国立社会保障, 人口問題研究所・人口構造研究部, 室長 (80415827)
YAMAUCHI Masakazu 国立社会保障, 人口問題研究所・情報調査分析部, 室長 (90415828)
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| Research Collaborator |
SUGA Keita 国立社会保障, 人口問題研究所・人口構造研究部, 研究員 (10327695)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2008 – 2010
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| Keywords | 将来人口推計 / 地域 / 出生 / 人口移動 |
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| Research Abstract |
This study focuses on the methodology of local population projections. The main results are as follows. (1) The cohort component method was widely used for local population projections in national and international governments. (2) The cohort component method was applied to provide more accurate forecast than net migration models. (3) The questionnaire survey was conducted to obtain assumptions that fertility rates will change. (4) The fertility and mortality of foreign people had little influence on local population projections in Japan. (5) The household projections by municipality were examined and its practical problems were discussed.
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Research Products
(18 results)
