2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
A Study on the Volcanic Scenario Adapting the FEP Analysis
| Project/Area Number |
20310107
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster science
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
MURAKAMI Makoto Hokkaido University, 大学院・理学研究院, 教授 (50370804)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
NISHIMURA Takuya 国土地理院, 地殻変動研究室, 主任研究官 (90370808)
MAKINO Hitoshi 日本原子力研究開発機構, 地層処分基盤研究ユニット, 研究職員 (60421632)
SEO Toshihiro 日本原子力研究開発機構, 地層処分基盤研究ユニット, 研究職員 (00421628)
UMEDA Koji 日本原子力研究開発機構, 地層処分基盤研究ユニット, 研究職員 (60421616)
GESHI Nobuo 産業技術総合研究所, 研究員 (70356955)
OIKAWA Teruki 産業技術総合研究所, 研究員 (10435761)
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
KAWAMURA Makoto 三菱マテリアルテクノ(株), 資源・環境・エネルギー事業部, グループリーダー (10469827)
OHI Takao 原子力発電環境整備機構, 技術部処分技術・性能評価グループ, 課長 (00421636)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2008 – 2010
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| Keywords | FEP / ハザードマップ / 火山 / 火山噴火シナリオ / 火山噴火予知 / 自然災害 / 自然 / 現象観測・予測 / 防災 |
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| Research Abstract |
We developed a framework of a logical method to compile an event sequence scenario describing an evolution of volcanic activity from its start to end depending deductive analysis based on causality relationship between primitive physical or chemical processes governing the volcanic phenomena. We adopted FEP Matrix (Feature, Event and Process) analysis method developed in the field of high level nuclear waste repository management as a tool to analyze logical relationship between volcanic processes. Firstly we listed the most important requirements that a volcanic scenario should satisfy; they are 1) comprehension and completeness, 2) traceability and accountability, 3) ease for expansion, 4) flexibility, 5) dependence on deductive reasoning and 6) affinity to computer processing. To achieve those we propose a logical algorithm in which we disassemble a volcanic event sequence into a series of primitive processes of physical or chemical nature and then reconstruct the entire sequence with a chain of primitive processes with their causality relationships. Furthermore we use a function format to represent a physical or chemical primitive process having environmental parameters and starting event as input variables and consequence event as output variable. We applied this method for the 2000 Miyakejima and 1986-87 Izuoshima eruptions and found that the whole volcanic processes are successfully described by a combination of physical and chemical primitive processes which we listed as a function set for a basaltic volcanic activity. Thus we verified the validity of our method to realize the deductive scenario compilation for volcanic eruption forecasting.
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