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2010 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

熱帯の気候変動モードの長期変調と海の温暖化現象に関する研究

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20340125
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

山形 俊男  東京大学, 大学院・理学系研究科, 教授 (50091400)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 東塚 知己  東京大学, 大学院・理学系研究科, 准教授 (40376538)
Keywords気候変動 / ダイポールモード現象 / 地球温暖化 / インド洋 / セーシェルドーム / 大気海洋結合モデル
Research Abstract

1.海洋大循環モデルの結果を解析することにより、セーシェルドーム(南西インド洋熱帯域の大規模湧昇ドーム現象)直上の海面水温の変動メカニズムを調べた。その結果、季節変動は、主に海面熱フラックスと水平移流によることがわかった。また、経年変動は、鉛直拡散偏差(ドームが弱い時は温度躍層が深くなり、混合層直下の水温が暖かくなるので、冷却効果が弱まる)と水平移流偏差(東風偏差による南向きのエクマン熱輸送偏差)によることが明らかになった。
2.ダイポールモード現象のテレコネクション(遠隔地への影響)により、イラン南部では、秋(雨季の前半)の降水量が正のダイポールモード現象発生時に増大することが観測データの解析により明らかとなった。
3.観測データの解析により、亜熱帯ダイポールモード現象は、1990年代半ば以降、2年周期の変動が卓越することが明らかとなった。この現象の発生に重要な亜熱帯高気圧の強さに大気テレコネクションによって影響を与えるインド洋熱帯域のダイポールモード現象も近年、周期が2年前後に短周期化しており、熱帯域からの影響が示唆される。また、熱帯域の気候変動現象だけではなく、南極周極波動や南極振動等の高緯度の気候変動現象も亜熱帯ダイポールモード現象の発生に重要な役割を果たしてことが大気海洋結合モデルの実験より明らかとなった。さらに、亜熱帯ダイポールモード現象の減衰は、正(負)極では、負(正)の潜熱偏差と混合層と混合層直下の温度差が増大(減少)することに起因するエントレインメント偏差によることが示された。

  • Research Products

    (68 results)

All 2011 2010 Other

All Journal Article (22 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 22 results) Presentation (45 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Anomalous summer climate in China influenced by the tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans2011

    • Author(s)
      Weng, H.
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 36 Pages: 769-782

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Predictability of Northwest Pacific climate during summer and the role of the tropical Indian Ocean2011

    • Author(s)
      Chowdary, J.S.
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 36 Pages: 607-621

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Impact of Global Ocean Surface Warming on Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction2011

    • Author(s)
      Luo, J.-J.
    • Journal Title

      J.Climate

      Volume: 24(6) Pages: 1626-1646

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Key factors in simulating the equatorial Atlantic zonal sea surface temperature gradient in a coupled general circulation model2011

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Journal Title

      J.Geophys.Res.

      Volume: 116 Pages: C06010

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Poleward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in a coupled model : role of internal processes2011

    • Author(s)
      Ajayamohan, R.S.
    • Journal Title

      Clim.Dyn.

      Volume: 37 Pages: 851-867

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The Atlantic Meridional Mode and its coupled variability with the Guinea Dome2010

    • Author(s)
      Doi, T.
    • Journal Title

      J.Climate

      Volume: 23 Pages: 455-475

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Interaction between El Nino and Extreme Indian Ocean Dipole2010

    • Author(s)
      J.-J., R.Zhang
    • Journal Title

      J.Climate

      Volume: 23 Pages: 726-742

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on following year's El Nino2010

    • Author(s)
      Takeshi Izumo
    • Journal Title

      Nature Geoscience

      Volume: 3 Pages: 168-172

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Characteristics of Coastal Trapped Waves along the Southern and Eastern Coasts of Australia2010

    • Author(s)
      Maiwa, K.
    • Journal Title

      J.Oceanogr.

      Volume: 2 Pages: 243-258

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Pacific Ocean Origin for the 2009 Indian Summer Monsoon Failure2010

    • Author(s)
      Ratnam, J.V.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys.Res.Lett.

      Volume: 37 Pages: L07807

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A Modeling Study of Interannual Variations of the Seychelles Dome2010

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Journal Title

      J.Geophys.Res.

      Volume: 115 Pages: C04005

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] How are seasonal prediction skills related to models' performance on mean state and annual cycle?2010

    • Author(s)
      Lee, J.-Y.
    • Journal Title

      Climate dynamics

      Volume: 35 Pages: 267-283

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Low and high frequency Madden-Julian oscillations in austral summer : interannual variations2010

    • Author(s)
      Izumo, T.
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 35(4) Pages: 669-683

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Equivalent forcing depth in tropical oceans2010

    • Author(s)
      Doi, T.
    • Journal Title

      Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

      Volume: 50 Pages: 415-423

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] On the triggering of Benguela Ninos : Remote equatorial versus local influences2010

    • Author(s)
      Richter, I.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys.Res.Lett.

      Volume: 37 Pages: L20604

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Climate Variability in the Southern Indian Ocean as Revealed by Self-Organizing Maps2010

    • Author(s)
      Morioka, Y.
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 35 Pages: 1075-1088

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Imprint of the El Nino Modoki on decadal sea level changes2010

    • Author(s)
      Behera, S.K.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys.Res.Lett.

      Volume: 37 Pages: L23702

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] IOD influence on the early winter Tibetan Plateau snow cover : Diagnostic analyses and an AGCM simulation

    • Author(s)
      Yuan, C.
    • Journal Title

      Clim.Dyn.

      Volume: (掲載確定)

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Anomalous climatic conditions associated with the El Nino Modoki during boreal of 2009

    • Author(s)
      Ratnam, J.V.
    • Journal Title

      Clim.Dyn.

      Volume: (掲載確定)

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] IOD and ENSO impacts on the extreme stream-flows of Citarum river in Indonesia. Climate Dynamics

    • Author(s)
      Sahu, N.
    • Journal Title

      Clim.Dyn.

      Volume: (掲載確定)

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] On the growth and decay of the subtropical dipole mode in the South Atlantic

    • Author(s)
      Morioka, Y.
    • Journal Title

      J.Climate

      Volume: (掲載確定)

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A simple regional coupled model experiment for summer-time climate simulation over southern Africa

    • Author(s)
      J.V.Ratnam
    • Journal Title

      Clim.Dyn.

      Volume: (掲載確定)

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole Modes in the CMIP3 Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations2011

    • Author(s)
      Kataoka, T., T. Tozuka, Y. Masumoto, and T. Yamagata
    • Organizer
      2011 AGU Fall Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      San Francisco, USA
    • Year and Date
      2011-12-06
  • [Presentation] The Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole Mode Simulated in the CMIP3 Models2011

    • Author(s)
      Kataoka T.
    • Organizer
      Mini-Workshop on Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variations
    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Tokyo(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2011-11-30
  • [Presentation] Predictability of the Subtropical Dipole Modes in SINTEX-F1 Model2011

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      SATREPS Symposium on Climate Prediction and Its Application in the Southern African Region
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Tokyo(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-20
  • [Presentation] Key factors in simulating the equatorial Atlantic zonal SST gradient in a CGCM2011

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T., T. Doi, T. Miyasaka, N. Keenlyside, and T. Yamagata
    • Organizer
      WCRP Open Science Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Denver, USA
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-06
  • [Presentation] Subtropical dipole modes simulated in a coupled general circulation model2011

    • Author(s)
      Morioka, Y.
    • Organizer
      SASAS
    • Place of Presentation
      Pretoria, South Africa
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-22
  • [Presentation] 大気海洋変動の予測について2011

    • Author(s)
      山形俊男
    • Organizer
      三菱調査懇談会9月例会
    • Place of Presentation
      銀行倶楽部(東京都)(招待講演)
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-20
  • [Presentation] 気候変動現象とその予測2011

    • Author(s)
      山形俊男
    • Organizer
      日本流体力学会年会2011
    • Place of Presentation
      首都大学東京(東京都)(招待講演)
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-08
  • [Presentation] Seasonal Prediction by the University of Tokyo Coupled General Circulation Model (UTCM)2011

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      SATREPS Symposium on Prediction of Climate Variations and its Application in the Southern African Region
    • Place of Presentation
      Pretoria, South Africa
    • Year and Date
      2011-08-23
  • [Presentation] Prediction on climate modes and the value of scientific research2011

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      Public lecture on seasonal climate : What can we predict?
    • Place of Presentation
      Department of Science and Technology, Pretoria, South Africa(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2011-08-19
  • [Presentation] 予測科学の進展と情報展開2011

    • Author(s)
      山形俊男
    • Organizer
      シミュレーション・予測と情報公開に求められること-これまで・今・これから-
    • Place of Presentation
      日本学術会議(東京都)(招待講演)
    • Year and Date
      2011-07-14
  • [Presentation] El Nino Modoki and Indian Ocean Dipole2011

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      IUGG2011
    • Place of Presentation
      Melbourne, Australia(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2011-07-04
  • [Presentation] Generation mechanism of the subtropical dipole modes simulated in a coupled general circulation model2011

    • Author(s)
      Morioka, Y., T. Tozuka, S. Masson, P. Terray, J. J. Luo, and T. Yamagata
    • Organizer
      IUGG
    • Place of Presentation
      Melbourne, Australia
    • Year and Date
      2011-07-02
  • [Presentation] A coupled modeling study on roles of South China Sea Throughflow in the global climate2011

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2011年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張(千葉県)
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-26
  • [Presentation] Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the interannual variability of precipitation over the southern part of Iran2011

    • Author(s)
      Pourasghar, F.
    • Organizer
      JpGU Meeting 2011
    • Place of Presentation
      Makuhari Messe (千葉県)
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-26
  • [Presentation] On the growth of the subtropical dipole mode in the South Atlantic2011

    • Author(s)
      Morioka, Y.
    • Organizer
      JpGU, Meeting 2011
    • Place of Presentation
      Makuhari Messe(千葉県)
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-26
  • [Presentation] An Overview of Ocean and Coupled Models2011

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      2nd DBCP Africa/Western Indian Ocean Capacity Building Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      Mauritius(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-02
  • [Presentation] Key factors in simulating the equatorial Atlantic zonal SST gradient in UTCM2011

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      Mini-workshop on Simulation and Prediction of Climate Modes Influencing the Southern African Region
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Tokyo(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2011-03-15
  • [Presentation] インド洋熱帯域の大気海洋相互作用2011

    • Author(s)
      東塚知己
    • Organizer
      第9回地球システム・地球進化ニューイヤースクール
    • Place of Presentation
      国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2011-01-09
  • [Presentation] Toward realistic simulation of the equatorial Atlantic zonal SST gradient in a CGCM2010

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      ATREPS Symposium on Climate Prediction and Information for the Society
    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Aizu(福島県)
    • Year and Date
      2010-12-17
  • [Presentation] IOSD and SASD variations in the SINTEX-F1 model simulations2010

    • Author(s)
      Morioka, Y.
    • Organizer
      SATREPS SYMPOSIUM ON CLIMATE PREDICTION AND INFORMATION FOR THE SOCIETY
    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Aizu(福島県)
    • Year and Date
      2010-12-17
  • [Presentation] Seasonal and interannual variations of the SST above the Seychelles Dome2010

    • Author(s)
      Yokoi T
    • Organizer
      SATREPS Symposium on Climate Prediction and Information for the Society
    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Aizu(福島県)
    • Year and Date
      2010-12-17
  • [Presentation] Climate and Society2010

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      SATREPS SYMPOSIUM ON CLIMATE PREDICTION AND INFORMATION FOR THE SOCIETY
    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Aizu(福島県)(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2010-12-16
  • [Presentation] 海洋の総合的管理と海洋予報2010

    • Author(s)
      山形俊男
    • Organizer
      日本海洋政策研究会第2回年次大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京海洋大学(東京都)(招待講演)
    • Year and Date
      2010-12-04
  • [Presentation] Subtropical Dipole Modes and their influence on the southern African region2010

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      IOC創設50周年シンポジウム「気候変化と変動におけるインド洋と太平洋の役割」
    • Place of Presentation
      国連大学(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2010-12-03
  • [Presentation] Ocean-related Climate Variability and Extreme Weather Events2010

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      International Symposium "Roles of the Indo-Pacific Oceans in Climate Change and Variability in Commemoration of the 50th Anniversary of IOC/UNESCO"
    • Place of Presentation
      United Nations University(東京都)(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2010-12-02
  • [Presentation] Role of the South China Sea Throughflow in the global climate system2010

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      Mini-Workshop on Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variations
    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Tokyo(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2010-11-30
  • [Presentation] Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole Mode and its influence on the Agulhas Current2010

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      3rd OFES Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      JAMSTEC, Yokohama(神奈川県)
    • Year and Date
      2010-11-04
  • [Presentation] Contributions of Japan to the activity of IOC/WESTPAC for 50 years2010

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T
    • Organizer
      "New Direction of Ocean Research in the Western Pacific" -Past, Present and Future of UNESCO/IOC/WESTPAC Activity for 50years and the JSPS Project "Costal Marine Science"
    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Tokyo AORI(千葉県)(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2010-10-27
  • [Presentation] Climate Variations and their impact on society2010

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      India-Japan Symposium on Emerging Technologies
    • Place of Presentation
      Indian Embassy Auditorium(東京都)(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2010-10-07
  • [Presentation] Thoughts on Climate Problems for More Appropriate Adaptation Measures2010

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      STS forum 7th Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2010-10-04
  • [Presentation] Integration of Observation and Modeling for Ocean Forecast and its Application-Evolution of Operational Oceanography-2010

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      地理空間情報の統合利用が拡げる安全・安心に関する国際シンポ(G空間EXPO)
    • Place of Presentation
      パシフィコ横浜(神奈川県)(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2010-09-21
  • [Presentation] The generation of the subtropical dipole mode in the South Atlantic2010

    • Author(s)
      Morioka, Y.
    • Organizer
      SASAS 2010
    • Place of Presentation
      Bloemfontein, South Africa
    • Year and Date
      2010-09-21
  • [Presentation] 異常気象をもたらす気候変動と予測研究の進展2010

    • Author(s)
      山形俊男
    • Organizer
      東京国際科学フェスティバル2010<南ア産ルイボスティーカフェ:気候変動と環境教育、日本と南アの科学技術協>
    • Place of Presentation
      三鷹ネットワーク大学(東京都)(招待講演)
    • Year and Date
      2010-09-17
  • [Presentation] 大気海洋結合モデルを用いた南シナ海通過流に関する研究2010

    • Author(s)
      東塚知己
    • Organizer
      2010年度日本海洋学会秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京農業大学オホーツクキャンパス(北海道網走市)
    • Year and Date
      2010-09-07
  • [Presentation] Seasonal and interannual variations of the SST above the Seychelles Dome2010

    • Author(s)
      横井孝暁
    • Organizer
      2010年度日本海洋学会秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京農業大学ホーツクキャンパス(北海道網走市)
    • Year and Date
      2010-09-07
  • [Presentation] 南大西洋亜熱帯ダイポールモードの減衰機構2010

    • Author(s)
      森岡優志
    • Organizer
      2010年度日本海洋学会秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京農業大学ホーツクキャンパス(北海道)網走市
    • Year and Date
      2010-09-07
  • [Presentation] CMIP3モデルで再現された南インド洋亜熱帯ダイポールモード現象2010

    • Author(s)
      片岡崇人
    • Organizer
      2010年度日本海洋学会秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京農業大学ホーツクキャンパス(北海道網走市)
    • Year and Date
      2010-09-07
  • [Presentation] Climate Change, Variation and Sustainable Green Energy2010

    • Author(s)
      山形俊男
    • Organizer
      会津産学懇話会9月定例会
    • Place of Presentation
      会津若松ワシントンホテル(福島県)(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2010-09-01
  • [Presentation] Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole Mode and its influence on the southern African region in UTCM2010

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      SATREPS Workshop on Seasonal and Inter-Annual Climate Variability
    • Place of Presentation
      Western Cape University, Cape Town, Republic of South Africa
    • Year and Date
      2010-08-25
  • [Presentation] Prediction of Climate Variations and Its Application in the Southern African Region2010

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      Applied Center for Climate and Earth Systems Science (ACCESS) Earth System Symposia
    • Place of Presentation
      University of the Western Cape, Cape Town, Republic of South Africa(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2010-08-23
  • [Presentation] Climate Prediction and its Rich Application2010

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      South Africa-Japan SATREPS Kick-off Symposium
    • Place of Presentation
      Department of Science and Technology, Pretoria, Republic of South Africa(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2010-08-20
  • [Presentation] Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole Mode and its influence of the southern African region in coupled models2010

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      South Africa-Japan SATREPS Kick-Off Symposium
    • Place of Presentation
      Department of Science and Technology, Pretoria, Republic of South Africa
    • Year and Date
      2010-08-20
  • [Presentation] Climate Change, variation and Sustainable Green Energy2010

    • Author(s)
      Yamagata, T.
    • Organizer
      Renewable Energy 2010
    • Place of Presentation
      Pacifico Yokohama(神奈川県)(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2010-06-30
  • [Presentation] Role of the South China Sea Throughflow in the global climate system2010

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      2010 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Taipei International Convention Center, Taiwan(invited)
    • Year and Date
      2010-06-24
  • [Presentation] Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole Mode and Its Influence on the Southern African Region2010

    • Author(s)
      Tozuka, T.
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2010年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ(千葉県)
    • Year and Date
      2010-05-23
  • [Book] 地球温暖化ビジネスのフロンティア2011

    • Author(s)
      大和田滝恵・岡村尭編
    • Total Pages
      23-52
    • Publisher
      国際書院

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Published: 2013-06-26  

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