2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Earnings forecasts and valuation in the emerging market

Research Project

Project/Area Number	20530415
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Section	一般
Research Field	Accounting
Research Institution	Takasaki City University of Economics
Principal Investigator	ABE Keiji Takasaki City University of Economics, 経済学部, 教授 (70277771)
Project Period (FY)	2008 – 2010
Keywords	利益予測 / 新興市場 / 市場の評価
Research Abstract	In the accounting and/or the finance area, the extensive literature that uses management earnings forecasts are reported. This paper shows the feature of the earnings forecasts by the manager with the forecast error. Our findings on the forecast error at the beginning of period are as follows. (1) In average, the earnings expectations are optimistic in the beginning for the year, but, there are changes by the economic fluctuations. (2) It is becoming a conservative forecast when the current fiscal year is a surplus. (3) The error margin of the net income is larger than the income before tax, while the accuracy of the expectation for net income is higher. (4) Using sample of the 1^<st> section Tokyo Stock Exchange, the middle asymmetry are found out in the distribution of the error, but using sample of the Jasdaq market, same phenomenon is not discovered. (5) Only when companies show a loss and/or their profit decrease, the tail asymmetry is observed.

(2 results)