2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Uncertainty associated with the lifecycle of tropical cyclones
| Project/Area Number |
20540434
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
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| Research Institution | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology |
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Principal Investigator |
ENOMOTO Takeshi Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 地球シミュレータセンター, チームリーダー (10358765)
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
KOMORI Nobumasa 独立行政法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球シミュレータセンター, 研究員 (80359223)
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| Research Collaborator |
MIYOSHI Takemasa メリーランド大学, 大気海洋科学部, 研究準教授
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| Project Period (FY) |
2008 – 2010
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| Keywords | 熱帯低気圧 / 台風 / 竜巻 / 海面水温偏差 / 大気大循環モデル / アンサンブル予測 / 不確定性 |
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| Research Abstract |
Uncertainty associated with tropical cyclones is investigated. First, we found that large analysis error indicates tropical cyclogenesis a few days later. Secondly, we developed a method to modify near core pressure observations to assimilate them into an atmospheric general circulation model of about a 100-km horizontal resolution. Finally, ensemble forecast experiments indicate importance of a high-resolution sea-surface temperature (SST) dataset to resolve fine SST anomalies and represent convective precipitation associated with a tropical storm.
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