2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Layered Bayes Model and Information Criteria for Rare Event Risk Analysis
| Project/Area Number |
20560775
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Nuclear engineering
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| Research Institution | Osaka University |
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Principal Investigator |
YAMAGUCHI Akira Osaka University, 工学研究科, 教授 (10403156)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
TAKATA Takashi 大阪大学, 工学研究科, 准教授 (40423206)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2008 – 2010
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| Keywords | 確率論的安全評価 / 耐震安全性 / フラジリティ / 情報エントロピー / ベイズ推定 / 情報量基準 / 原子力プラント |
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| Research Abstract |
In the seismic PSA of nuclear facilities, seismic fragilities of equipment and systems are to be evaluated. However, the fragilities involve uncertainties since the seismically-induced failure mechanism is not sufficiently known and a failure event is rare. In the present study, a new methodology for quantifying the common mode failure caused by external events and for reducing fragility uncertainty using very limited information. The information criterion is selected as the index for the uncertainty. It has been found that the present work is useful for the risk assessment and management of rare earthquake hazard.
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