2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Analyses on the efficacy of therapy for HCV infection
| Project/Area Number |
20590521
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Medical sociology
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| Research Institution | St.Marianna University School of Medicine |
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Principal Investigator |
TATSUNAMI Shinobu St.Marianna University School of Medicine, 医学部, 准教授 (70197383)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2008 – 2010
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| Keywords | HCV / インターフェロン / 生存関数 / 乱数 / ロジスティックモデル |
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| Research Abstract |
We estimated the benefits of the interferon therapy among Japanese patients infected with HCV. In case of data defects, each patient's viral genotype and RNA concentration were substituted by random numbers simulating the distribution of the actual observation. By repeating the computation 1000 times, we estimated the number of sustained viral responders (SVR) resulting from the therapy.
Under the most conservative condition corresponding to minimum efficacy, for example, the estimate for SVR was 35.7±1.8% and 37.1±1.2% for HIV-negative and positive patients, respectively. On the other hand, it was 55.7±2.0 % and 68.4±1.2 % under improved conditions in which the therapy efficacy was set as 50%, respectively at 6 Log IU/mL for HCV subtype 1 in HIV-positive patients. These estimates will be helpful for making a decision regarding interferon therapy among the present subjects.
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