2009 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Short-term prediction of the numbers of HIV/AIDS cases
| Project/Area Number |
20790426
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Hygiene
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| Research Institution | Fujita Health University |
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Principal Investigator |
KAWADO Miyuki Fujita Health University, 医学部, 助教 (10345051)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2008 – 2009
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| Keywords | 社会医学 / 感染症 / 将来予測 / 予防医学 |
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| Research Abstract |
We attempted to predict the number of HIV/AIDS cases. Data from the HIV/AIDS surveillance in Japan until the end of 2007 were available. The numbers of reported HIV cases and AIDS cases in 2012 were predicted using linear regression method. The numbers of HIV cases and AIDS cases in Japan in 2012 was predicted to be 1,312 and 444, respectively. The predicted numbers of HIV cases and AIDS cases in districts were ranged from 10 to 482 and from 8 to 96, respectively.
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