2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Hydrological Evaluation of Extreme Dryness Hazard for Large Scale Wildfire

Research Project

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Project/Area Number	20H02248
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Section	一般
Review Section	Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
Research Institution	Kyoto University (2022-2023) Tohoku University (2020-2021)
Principal Investigator	Yoshiya Touge 京都大学, 防災研究所, 特定准教授 (90761536)
Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha)	西野智研京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (00609894) 城戸由能愛知工業大学, 工学部, 教授 (50224994) 高根雄也国立研究開発法人産業技術総合研究所, エネルギー・環境領域, 主任研究員 (80711952)
Project Period (FY)	2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Keywords	林野火災 / 気候変動 / 乾燥害 / 乾燥指標 / 極値水文統計 / 陸面過程モデル / 極端気象災害 / 火災・豪雨複合災害
Outline of Final Research Achievements	Since large-scale wildfires have caused severe damage worldwide, we performed a hydrological assessment to understand the current situation and project future extreme drought. First, to understand the current situation, we examined long-term changes and trends in aridity and the occurrence of wildfires, as well as the relationship between wildfires and hydrological factors. Specifically, we (1) investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics of wildfires in Japan and conducted field surveys during large-scale events, (2) evaluated long-term changes in aridity and change points, and (3) evaluated meteorological factors that are highly correlated with fire occurrence considering their frequency. In addition, future changes in extreme dried conditions were projected using hydrological models and large ensemble datasets. In addition, (5) post-fire heavy rainfall was investigated as a case study of combined extreme dryness and heavy rainfall.
Free Research Field	水文学
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	本研究で示した林野火災・乾燥度の現状理解・将来予測に関する研究成果は，近年極端な林野火災事例が報告される中で，単に平均的な乾燥度の変化だけでなく，生起頻度に基づく乾燥度・林野火災の分析方法を新たに提案したことが有用となる．本課題を通して大規模林野火災時の調査結果も蓄積している．本研究を進める中で物理的定量評価へ向けた研究展開・構想が得られており，後続の研究課題（24H00336）で継続・発展する見込みである．