2020 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
The impact of vaccination on interactive transmission dynamics between the pneumonia and influenza
| Project/Area Number |
20J21358
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
JUNG SUNGMOK 北海道大学, 医学院, 特別研究員(DC1)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-24 – 2023-03-31
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| Keywords | Mathematical Modeling / Influenza / Secondary pneumonia / COVID-19 / transmission dynamics |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
To understand the role of influenza in the epidemiology of pneumonia, which is the main object of the present project, reconstructing the transmission dynamics of influenza and secondary pneumonia would be deemed a critical point. However, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the epidemiological features of respiratory infectious diseases including two pathogens have been dramatically altered, and without a thorough consideration of current COVID-19 transmission, reconstruction of the actual underlying dynamics of two pathogens might be extremely limited. Thus, after consulting with Hiroshi Nishiura at Kyoto University, we decided to explore the COVID-19 transmission in Japan in addition to the originally proposed study.
As a result, during the first fiscal year, three studies on the infection dynamics of COVID-19 have been conducted along with a research paper with a first author. The published paper aimed to project the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan with variable interventions in high-risk settings, providing a possible exit strategy that allows socio-economic activities to be maintained while minimizing the risk of a resurgence of the disease. In addition, the other study quantitatively assessed the impacts of a possible vaccination strategy on the reduction in the COVID-19 incidence and deaths, guiding the optimal prioritization of the nationwide COVID-19 vaccination program in Japan. These studies provided essential insight into understanding the current COVID-19 dynamics and scientific evidence in developing the optimal response strategy in Japan.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
Considering the significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of influenza and secondary pneumonia, the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 have been primarily investigated in addition to the proposed study. A total of three studies on the infection dynamics of COVID-19 have been conducted and one study was published in the Royal Society Open Science in March 2021. In detail, these studies have involved projecting future waves of COVID-19 in Japan with variable interventions in high-risk settings and quantifying the impact of possible vaccination strategies on the reduction in the incidence and expected number of COVID-19 deaths. These studies aided the public health field both academically and practically by providing crucial scientific evidence for the decision-making procedure. These findings were also presented at international and domestic conferences, with the latter winning an award.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
Despite that the pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely implemented to suppress the ongoing COVID-19 transmissions, there were no clear signs of a decline in the incidence. Therefore, future work will continuously explore the ongoing transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Japan and its possible impacts on influenza and pneumonia. In particular, the future study aims to project the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 using more readily accessible data than case counts (e.g., human mobility and temperature). Such timely projection of the effective reproduction number can provide valuable insight into the understanding of indirectly unobservable transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and future impacts of COVID-19 on other respiratory infectious diseases including influenza and secondary pneumonia.
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