An Experimental and Historical Analysis of Japanese Views on Defense and the Constitution

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K01479
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 06010:Politics-related
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Sakaiya Shiro 東京大学, 大学院法学政治学研究科(法学部), 教授 (70568419)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 憲法 / 防衛政策 / 世論調査

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The results of our research can be divided into the following four main areas. First, we conducted a systematic analysis of the Japanese people's intentions toward constitutional reform using a statistical technique called the “pooling-the-polls” method. Second, we conducted a web-based survey experiment simulating a referendum on constitutional reform to empirically clarify Japanese attitudes toward the Constitution. Third, we historically argued that the issue of constitutional revision has been a central point of contention in postwar Japanese politics, and formulated the recent political situation as the “Neo 1955 system". Fourth, we created a data set that collected the results of all public opinion polls conducted by major mass media in the postwar period, and conducted a comparative analysis of attitudes toward defense policy and other policy areas.

Free Research Field

日本政治論

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では日本人の憲法意識について、長期的、多角的に分析を行ったが、従来、政治行動研究者が憲法問題に強い関心を持ってこなかったことをふまえれば、学術的に十分新規性のある研究成果が挙げられたものと考える。また、本研究の成果（特に日本人の「非立憲性」に関する知見や「ネオ55年体制」概念）はインターネットメディアや新聞等で何度も取り上げられており、一般社会に向けた発信も十分に行われたと考える。さらに、本研究で構築した世論調査データセットは膨大なもので、今後の世論研究の基礎的インフラとなる重要な価値を持つはずである。