2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Re examination of turning point of business cycle and development of a new statistical model to estimate business cycle
| Project/Area Number |
20K01615
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
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| Research Institution | Tohoku Gakuin University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | 景気循環分析 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this study, we developed a new statistical model and empirically analyzed Japan's business cycle. We also used contribution decomposition to clarify the magnitude of the shock to the economy caused by the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Next, to model the dynamics of the Japanese economy, we applied a probability distribution in which the skewness of the distribution changes depending on the state of the economy, and revealed that the distribution is significantly skewed during recessions. Furthermore, we clarified that there is a correlation between the spatial spillover effect and the Economy Watchers Index and the number of new job openings in terms of regional business cycles.
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| Free Research Field |
経済統計
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究では、日本の景気動向や転換点について、統計モデルを用いて推定を行なっている。景気の特徴を示すことや景気の好況・不況がどのタイミングで起きたかを示すことは、学術的にも重要であるが、政策当局のみならず民間企業ひいては消費者においても重要な情報である。また、コロナ禍における日本経済の状況を定量的に分析することは、アフターコロナにおける経済政策だけでなく一般家計や企業においても有益な情報提供になりうる。このことから、本研究の社会的意義は大きいと考えられる。
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