Reexamining Conventional Monetary Policy: Theory, Meta-Analysis, and Causal Inference

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K01638
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
• Research Institution: Daito Bunka University
• Principal Investigator: Gunji Hiroshi 大東文化大学, 経済学部, 教授 (50438785)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 宮崎 憲治 法政大学, 経済学部, 教授 (10308009) ; 三浦 一輝 愛知学院大学, 総合政策学部, 准教授 (70711159)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 金融政策 / 因果推論 / 銀行理論 / 操作変数 / 準備預金制度

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The paper examining the effects of monetary policy using banking theory was able to capture the possibility that the effects of conventional monetary policy, or interbank market interest rates, on the money stock could be either positive or negative. Although the meta-analysis was aborted due to low sample availability, the alternative study, an analysis of the effects of conventional interest rate policy using the Bartik regressor and manipulated variables, found that interest rate policy did not have a very strong effect on the macro variables at the prefectural level. Furthermore, an analysis of the effect of the reserve requirement ratio found that deposits were substantially restrained by the reserve requirement system.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は伝統的金融政策があまり明確な効果を発揮しない可能性があることを発見した。特に、伝統的金利政策はマネーストックには曖昧な効果を、一人あたり実質GDPやインフレ率には統計的に有意でない効果を持つことがわかった。このことは伝統的金融政策にマクロ経済安定化策をあまり期待できないことを示唆している。また、準備預金制度は預金市場を強く抑制するため、準備預金をゼロか非常に低い率にすることが望ましいと考えられる。