2023 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Impacts of tariffs of the US against China on the machinery exports of China and Japan to the US
| Project/Area Number |
20K01642
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| Research Institution | Waseda University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | trade war / machinery exports / exchange rates / export prices / system GMM |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
1. Did Chinese variables affect the machinery exports from Korea to the US? This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China and South Korea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2021Q4 to determine the impacts of Chinese variables such as trade war and exchange rates on the export quantity and price of Korea. The TSLS estimation results show that the impacts of Chinese variables on Korean exports are bigger than the impacts of Korean variables on Chinese exports. A 1% depreciation of the renminbi decreases the value of Korean exports by 0.28% while a 1% depreciation of the won increases the value of Chinese exports by 0.04%. Trade war affected Korean exports positively while it affected Chinese exports negatively. This paper will be submitted to the Journal of Korea Trade in May 2024.
2. Was there a structural break in the impacts of exchange rates on the prices of Japanese machinery exports to the US? The purpose of the research is to investigate whether the impact of exchange rates on export prices in the machinery exports from Japan to the US has changed after the Great Recession. The impact of exchange rates on export prices turns out to be much smaller and statistically insignificant after the Great Recession. This paper will be presented in the spring meeting of the Japan Society of International Economics on June 1, 2024.
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