Interdependence among expected rate of profit, productivity and uncertainty - comparison of Germany and Japan

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K01656
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
• Research Institution: Okayama Shoka University (2022); Kobe University (2020-2021)
• Principal Investigator: HAGIWARA Taiji 岡山商科大学, 経済学部, 教授 (40172837)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 松林 洋一 神戸大学, 経済学研究科, 教授 (90239062)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: Tobinの限界Q / 全要素生産性 / 設備年齢 / 対外直接投資 / クロスボーダーM&A

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The Japanese economy is suffering from long-term stagnation. By comparing Japanese firms' productivity and investment behaviour with those of Germany and South Korea, which are advanced exporting countries like Japan, on the basis of micro data, this study aims to characterise the productivity and investment behaviour of Japanese firms and to find the causes of their long-term stagnation. It is found that the Japanese economy has been trapped in a vicious circle where (1) low expected rate of return, represented by Tobin's marginal Q, does not affect investment, and (2) low investment activity leads to stagnation of productivity through the ageing of equipment age, which in turn leads to (3) stagnation of expected rate of return.

Free Research Field

経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

企業行動に関する実証分析は多いが、同じモデルによる投資、生産性の国際比較をミクロデータに基づいて分析した点で、学術的意義がある。長期停滞の企業側の要因を明らかにしたことは、日本経済の活性化に対する政策的な含意をもたらすと期待される。