The Effects of Population Aging on Public Good Provision by Government--Political Economic Approach

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K01712
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07050:Public economics and labor economics-related
• Research Institution: Keio University
• Principal Investigator: Terai Kimiko 慶應義塾大学, 経済学部(三田), 教授 (80350213)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 宮里 尚三 日本大学, 経済学部, 教授 (60399532)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 人口高齢化 / シルバー民主主義 / 地方分権 / 人口移動 / インフラ投資 / 教育 / 法人税 / 最低賃金

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This project involved an international comparison between Japan and the United States regarding the impact of population aging on regional policies. First, the impact of population aging on regional investment spending, such as infrastructure investment and education, has not necessarily been the same between Japan and the United States. The reason for this is that in the United States, where decentralization has progressed, there is active interregional population movement, and that people express their policy preferences through ``voting with their feet.''
Next, we conducted an empirical analysis of the impact of population aging on corporate burdens. It was confirmed that in both Japan and the United States, corporate tax revenues tend to be low in regions with high aging rates. A comparison of the minimum wages between Japan and the US shows that, unlike in the US, minimum wages in Japan tend to be higher in areas with a high aging rate.

Free Research Field

公共経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

第一に、人口高齢化の影響が国によって異なることを、日米のパネルデータを用いた分析によって明らかにしたことである。日本は先進国の中でも人口高齢化のスピードと度合いにおいて抜きんでているが、日本の経験をそのまま他の先進国に当てはめて対応策を実行しても、期待した効果が得られない可能性があることを示した。
第二に、人口高齢化が投資的政府支出、経済成長に与える負荷を、地方分権という制度設計によって軽減できることを示したことである。地方分権が促す「足による投票」、すなわち地域間人口移動が、若者、高齢者それぞれの世代が満足できる地域経済の実現につながることを示した。