2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
The Current Account Surplus and the Budget Deficit in the Global Market: Cyclical and Categorical analysis
Project/Area Number |
20K01764
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Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
Section | 一般 |
Review Section |
Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
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Research Institution | Tohoku University |
Principal Investigator |
Nagayasu Jun 東北大学, 経済学研究科, 教授 (30375422)
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Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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Keywords | 経常収支 / 財政政策 |
Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We investigate whether cyclicality affects the relationship between the current account (CA) and government expenditures based on a sample of 51 countries. Our findings indicate that a negative impact on the CA due to aggregate government spending is only visible in countercyclical economies, suggesting the importance of cyclicality in explaining the dynamics of the present value model. However, due to substantial heterogeneity, cyclicality is insufficient for explaining the link between disaggregate fiscal policy and the CA. A time-series approach shows that subsidies play a significant role in the CA of some countries and that property income is a major CA determinant in countries with large external debts. Conversely, the largest components of public spending (compensation of employees, intermediate consumption, and social benefits) play a minor role.
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Free Research Field |
国際金融
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Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
長期にわたる金融緩和政策による超低金利状況を背景に、経済を立て直す政策として財政緩和の経済効果が多くの国々で脚光を浴びている。財政赤字と経常収支(または貿易収支)赤字が併存する問題(いわゆる「双子の赤字」(Twin Deficits))を抱える国々が存在する一方、政府歳出増加が経常収支黒字をもたらすケースも存在する。本研究は周期(periodicity)、項目別データから財政政策の経常収支への伝播ルートを明確にし、その規模を定量化することで、今後のマクロ経済政策の構築に貴重な情報を提供する。
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