Empirical Macro Accounting Research

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K02033
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07100:Accounting-related
• Research Institution: Hitotsubashi University
• Principal Investigator: NAKANO Makoto 一橋大学, 大学院経営管理研究科, 教授 (00275017)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 集約利益 / GDP予測 / マクロ会計 / 会計ベータ

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study attempted to investigate the following points using macro-level accounting earnings information (aggregate earnings) created by aggregating micro-level (individual firm) accounting information. (1) We verified that macroeconomic indicators (GDP, capital investment, consumption, etc.) can be predicted using aggregate earnings. (2) Using quarterly financial reporting data for 21 countries, we analyzed the usefulness of aggregate earnings and their components (profitability and efficiency indicators) in predicting future GDP growth rates. In addition, we found that the model can improve the GDP forecasting ability of aggregate earnings by incorporating the effects of shocks such as the Lehman Shock and COVID19 into the model.

Free Research Field

会計学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

近年、企業利益が好調であっても、国の経済は好調ではないという「デカップリング」の議論がなされることが多い。例えば日本では、史上最高益の企業が増えて、株式市場も好調だが、国民の景況感は必ずしもポジティブではない。
本研究では個別企業の利益を合計した指標（集約利益）とマクロ経済指標の関係性を多面的に分析した。その結果、集約利益には将来のGDP成長率を予測する能力がある点が明らかになった。これは世界21か国に対象を拡大したグローバル分析でも同様である。