2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Representation of convection and its relationship with cloud feedback and climate sensitivity
Project/Area Number |
20K04067
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Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
Section | 一般 |
Review Section |
Basic Section 17020:Atmospheric and hydrospheric sciences-related
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Research Institution | National Institute for Environmental Studies |
Principal Investigator |
HIROTA Nagio 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 地球システム領域, 主任研究員 (30750616)
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Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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Keywords | 気候感度 / 雲降水 / 気候モデル |
Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this research project, we analyzed the experimental outputs of many climate models (CMIP3, 5, 6) around the world and performed numerical experiments using the Japanese climate model MIROC. In warmer climate, cloud amount in the lower atmosphere (~2000 m) decrease weakening the sun-shade effect of clouds and accelerating global warming. In addition, clouds in the upper atmosphere (~10000 m) increase in height with global warming, which strengthens the greenhouse effect of clouds and accelerates global warming. However, many climate models underestimate the amounts of low and high clouds, indicating insufficient positive feedback of these clouds. These results were published as two papers in international academic journals.
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Free Research Field |
気候学
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Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
気候モデルによる気候変動予測には大きな不確実性がある。例えば、IPCC AR6で参照されている気候モデルによって予測されるCO2倍増時の気温上昇量には1.8-5.6℃の幅がある。本研究課題では、気候変動予測の不確実性の最大の要因である、雲・降水プロセスを調べ、それらが温暖化を加速するメカニズムを示した。更にその理解に基づいて、気候変動における雲の働き(雲フィードバック)の不確実性を低減することに成功した。これらの成果は、気候モデルによるより精緻な気候変動予測に繋がるものである。
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