Time Series Analysis of the Relationship Between Urban Development and Railway Demand Under Deregulations of Floor Area Ratio in Tokyo

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K04733
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 22050:Civil engineering plan and transportation engineering-related
• Research Institution: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• Principal Investigator: Hibino Naohiko 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 教授 (10318206)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 容積率緩和 / 高層ビル / 都市鉄道 / 鉄道需要 / 都市再開発

Outline of Final Research Achievements

With the rapid construction of skyscrapers in megacities, the number of railway passengers is increasing. Differences in the development times between skyscraper construction and railway facilities improvements around stations lead to excessive congestion in stations and impair comfort as well as safety. This study focuses on skyscrapers constructed after 2000 in Tokyo. Based on recent trends in floor space ratio deregulation applied to skyscrapers, the study illustrates that deregulations tend to be applied to large-scale skyscraper developments with a high floor area ratio and a large total floor area. The study performs regression analysis on the relationship between the floor area of skyscrapers by intended use and the number of passengers on the railway and finds that the impact on the number of railway passengers differs by intended use. As a result, the study proposes that the deregulation conditions for floor area ratio should be based on the degree of impact by intended use.

Free Research Field

土木計画学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

容積率規制緩和に伴う都市再開発には，経済発展，国際競争力強化等の効果と鉄道混雑による快適性，安全性の低下等の副作用とがあり，問題箇所に対して単に規制をするという簡単なものではない．そのため，処方，効果と副作用の実態をデータから明らかにし，改善のための解を導き出したことには，学術的・社会的意義がある．開発される場所，適用する制度，供給される用途別床面積等により，どの程度の鉄道需要の増加が見込まれるかがわかれば戦略的な整備が可能となるため，本研究の成果は学術的のみならず実務的にも有用である．また，新興諸国の大都市における高層ビルの建設は日本以上であり，本研究の成果は先行事例的な価値も有している．