2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Construction and verification of the evaluating methodology for the transition of transfer function in road networks after damage earthquakes

Research Project

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Project/Area Number	20K05052
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Section	一般
Review Section	Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
Research Institution	Hosei University
Principal Investigator	SAKAI Hisakazu 法政大学, デザイン工学部, 教授 (00360371)
Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha)	梶谷義雄香川大学, 創造工学部, 教授 (80371441) CHAKRABORTY ANIRBAN 法政大学, デザイン工学部, 助手 (30907803)
Project Period (FY)	2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Keywords	地震 / 道路ネットワーク / 復旧性 / 斜面災害 / 緊急輸送道路 / 孤立集落 / 経時的機能性
Outline of Final Research Achievements	(i) As a method for predicting road restoration periods during earthquakes based on machine learning, a restoration period prediction model based on support vector regression was constructed using data from seven recent earthquakes. (ii) As an evaluation method for slope failure during earthquakes, using covariance structure analysis and logistic regression analysis, SMOTE was applied to earthquakes with little failure data. Furthermore, an isolation evaluation method was proposed based on the obtained slope failure evaluation formula. (iii) To prepare for the application of the method for evaluating the function of road networks over time to Wakayama Prefecture, a prototype decentralised goods transport model was developed, considering mutual support among evacuation centres and settlements. It was also applied to a case study in Kagawa Prefecture, where an attempt was made to verify the functionality of road networks over time in terms of goods transport.
Free Research Field	地震工学
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	人命にとっては発災後72時間が勝負と考えられているため、極めて短期間の緊急輸送道路の機能回復が求められる。しかし、東北地方太平洋沖地震において成功例とされている櫛の歯作戦でも沿岸部までの15ルート中11ルートしか3日以内に機能回復できておらず、また、南海トラフ巨大地震における高知県の想定では道路啓開に3日を越えるルートが多数あるのが現状である。本研究では、内陸部の道路ネットワークの機能性評価に影響する山地形の地震動増幅特性を把握し、地震時斜面崩壊確率の精度向上の手法の開発・改良を進めた。さらに、和歌山県、香川県で手法を適用し、道路ネットワークの経時機能性の検証を行った。