Re-analysis of assumptions of damage in Osaka city caused by a Nankai Trough earthquake using mobile spatial statistics

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K09292
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 55060:Emergency medicine-related
• Research Institution: Osaka Metropolitan University (2022-2023); Osaka City University (2020-2021)
• Principal Investigator: Yamamoto Hiromasa 大阪公立大学, 大学院医学研究科, 客員准教授 (20509723)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 木村 義成 大阪公立大学, 大学院文学研究科, 准教授 (20570641)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 南海トラフ巨大地震 / 地理情報システム / モバイル空間統計

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Damage estimates were calculated using mobile spatial statistics. The total number of casualties was 4,294 when the early evacuation rate was high, but it was found to be higher in the center and lower in the periphery of Osaka City compared to the census base. When the early evacuation rate was low, the number of injured was 30,960. The number of injured was higher in coastal and northeastern areas, and more people were injured in urban and industrial areas and less in residential areas compared to the census base. The simulation of severe and moderate injury transports showed that a high early evacuation rate markedly reduced the number of transports. The medical burden was also found to be greater in the northeastern area than in the coastal area, which is generally considered to be the case.

Free Research Field

災害医学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究で算出したモバイル空間統計を用いた被害想定は、これまでの国勢調査ベースの被害想定に比べより実情に即しており、したがって災害時医療体制の分析・再構築にとって本研究の手法は必要不可欠である。また研究成果より特に早期避難率が低い場合に医療需給のアンバランスがおこることを明らかにすることができた。また一般に被害が大きいとされている沿岸部よりも、北東部で傷病者が多く、医療への負荷も大きいことがわかった。さらに市民に対する早期避難の重要性を教育していくこと、また医療圏の再考や各医療圏内で中等症患者の受入体制を構築することなど、医療需給のアンバランスを改善させる方略を提言することができた。