Construction and Simulation Analysis of Decision Making Model for Tsunami Initiative Evacuation in Port City

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K12394
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 80020:Tourism studies-related
• Research Institution: Otaru University of Commerce
• Principal Investigator: FUKADA hidemi 小樽商科大学, 商学部, 教授 (40547866)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 橋本 雄一 北海道大学, 文学研究院, 教授 (90250399)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 観光港湾都市 / 津波 / 避難行動 / 率先避難 / エージェント・シミュレーション

Outline of Final Research Achievements

It is difficult to conduct an evacuation drill for a tsunami in a tourist resort in the Bay Area, which is visited by many tourists who do not know the area well. Therefore, in this study, tourists were replaced with computer agents, and the effects of leading evacuees (People who take the initiative in evacuation) on tourists were analyzed using a multi-agent simulation.
In this simulation, the number of people who arrived at the emergency evacuation site increased as the number of leading evacuees increased. On the other hand, the time required for evacuation was the same regardless of the number of agents who took the initiative in evacuation. This suggests that a certain number of lead evacuees can guide tourists who do not know the land to the evacuation site by securing a certain number of leading evacuees.

Free Research Field

観光情報学，地理情報科学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

日本国内では地震に伴う自然災害が相次いで発生している．例えば，2018年は北海道胆振東部地震に伴う大規模停電で，多くの観光者も被災した．しかし，北海道の海岸を有する観光地では，観光危機管理の意識が乏しい地域が多く，津波避難施設の方向を示す案内看板が無いエリアでは，津波が発生した場合，地理不案内な観光者が適切な避難行動をとることが出来ない状況にある．
よって，本研究の社会的意義は「観光者が，現在滞在している地理不安内な観光地において，どのようにすれば，短時間で適切な津波避難を行うことが出来るのか」という問いに対する答えを明らかにし，地域防災に貢献することである．