Global forest transitions: finding evidence for the forest transition theory and examining implications for SDG 15

2021 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K13262
• Research Institution: Forest Research and Management Organization
• Principal Investigator: ESTOQUE RONALDC 国立研究開発法人森林研究・整備機構, 森林総合研究所, 主任研究員 等 (60760139)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: forest transition / land change / forest cover change / SDG / sustainability / GIScience/Remote Sensing / Earth observation

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

The following are some key achievements during the past (final) year (FY 2021): (1) spatiotemporal analysis of global forest cover changes from 1960 to 2019; (2) presentation of research findings in a conference; and (3) writing of a research article based on the results of the analysis (already submitted to a journal for publication and is currently Under Review). In brief, the analysis revealed that over the past 60 years (1960-2019), global forest area has declined by 81.7 million ha, with forest loss (437.3 million ha) outweighing forest gain (355.6 million ha). With this forest decline and the population increase (4.68 billion) over the period, global forest per capita has decreased by over 60%, from 1.4 ha in 1960 to 0.5 ha in 2019. The spatiotemporal pattern of forest change supports the forest transition theory, with forest losses occurring primarily in the lower income countries in the tropics and gains in the higher income countries in the extratropics; furthermore, economic growth has a stronger association with net forest gain than loss. In the context of global sustainability, climate change and biodiversity conservation, there is a need to strengthen current global efforts both in reducing deforestation and forest degradation and in enhancing forest restoration and conservation (e.g., SDG 15) to at least flatten the world’s forest loss curve.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Ecosystem Services Monitoring in the Muthurajawela Marsh and Negombo Lagoon, Sri Lanka, for Sustainable Landscape Planning (2021)
  • Author(s): Darshana A, Estoque RC, Murayama Y, Matsushita B
  • Journal Title: Sustainability Volume: 13 Pages: 11463～11463
  • DOI: 10.3390/su132011463
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Monitoring global land-use efficiency in the context of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (2021)
  • Author(s): Estoque RC, Ooba M, Togawa T, Hijioka Y, Murayama Y
  • Journal Title: Habitat International Volume: 115 Pages: 102403～102403
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2021.102403
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Global forest cover changes in the past 60 years (2021)
  • Author(s): Estoque RC
  • Organizer: The 133 The Japanese Forest Society Conference
• [Presentation] Remotely sensed tree canopy cover-based indicators for monitoring progress towards global sustainability and environmental initiatives (2021)
  • Author(s): Estoque RC, Ooba M, Johnson BA, Gao Y, DasGupta R, Togawa T, Hijioka Y, Murayama Y, Gavina LD, Lasco RD, Nakamura S
  • Organizer: Japan Geoscience Union (JpGU) Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] A scenario-based analysis of the impacts of urbanization on the ecosystem services of the Muthurajawela Marsh and Negombo Lagoon, Sri Lanka (2021)
  • Author(s): Darashna A, Murayama Y, Matsushita B, Estoque RC
  • Organizer: Japan Geoscience Union (JpGU) Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research