Conditions of Exit from Armed Peace Operation: Exploring Withdrawal Decision Process through the Improved Two-Level Game

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K13423
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 06020:International relations-related
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Nakamura Nagafumi 東京大学, 教養学部, 特任講師 (80793710)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 国際政治 / 紛争研究 / 平和構築論 / 軍事介入 / 出口戦略

Outline of Final Research Achievements

When is it appropriate for intervening states to decide on the withdrawal from armed peace operation? According to previous studies that focus on the withdrawal decision process of countries that contribute troops, the decision is taken when the ruling government anticipates that their voters in the upcoming national election will blame them for the increase in casualties of their troops. This immediate blame avoidance model is suited to discuss the decision-making process of the troops contributing countries. However, this model fails to explain the troop withdrawal process of the operation leading country (e.g., U.S.). If the security of intervened state deteriorates after the withdrawal, the leading country will be blamed for the failure to promote lasting peace. This study argues that it is possible for the operation leading country to decide on withdrawal when it can shift the responsibility of the deterioration of local security to other actors.

Free Research Field

国際関係論

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

二層ゲームに関する既存の研究は、ゲーム理論による議論の精緻化と事例分析の蓄積による議論の適用範囲の確認を中心に進んできた。一方、本研究では、時期によって対内正当化の重要度と対外正当化の重要度が逆転することを示した。これにより、二層ゲーム論の議論自体を問いなおすという学術的意義を持つこととなった。また、「出口戦略のディレンマ」を不可避的に抱えることを示すことで、介入の是非に際して今後検討をする際には慎重な判断が必要ではないかと政策論的な問題提起をすることとなった。これは、社会的意義だといえるだろう。