Empirical analysis of household consumption using subjective data

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K13512
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07050:Public economics and labor economics-related
• Research Institution: Chiba University (2022); Ehime University (2020-2021)
• Principal Investigator: Niizeki Takeshi 千葉大学, 大学院社会科学研究院, 准教授 (40733986)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 期待インフレ率 / 非伝統的金融政策 / 主観的データ / 家計消費

Outline of Final Research Achievements

By using subjective data at the household level, this study conducted two analyses.
The first is the impact of expected inflation on household spending, which was analyzed by matching three government statistics. The results showed that a temporary increase in the expected inflation rate stimulates household spending, especially on durable goods, but that it is followed by a reactionary decline of the same magnitude in about two quarters, indicating that household spending may not be affected in the long run.
The second is the impact of permanent and temporary income shocks on household expenditures. The estimation results indicate that Japanese households may be able to insure a significant portion of the effects of permanent income shocks as well as temporary income shocks.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

期待インフレ率の上昇が一時的に家計支出を刺激しうるが、その後すぐに同程度の反動減があり、家計支出に与える長期的な影響はほぼないという分析結果は、ゼロ金利制約下で行なわれている非伝統的研究政策の効果を考える上で、示唆深い結果と言える。特に、長期的な効果までを分析した研究事例は、筆者の知る限り、日本においては初めてである。
また、日本の家計は恒常所得ショックの8割程度をinsureできている結果は、リーマンショックやコロナショック等が家計の経済厚生に与える影響を考える上で、重要な結果と言える。