Analysis and future projections of Japan's current account using an open economy model

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K13526
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
• Research Institution: University of Toyama
• Principal Investigator: YAMADA Junji 富山大学, 学術研究部社会科学系, 准教授 (10633993)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 経常収支 / 世代重複モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research project analyzes the determinants of the current account balance, which represents the balance of payments for external economic transactions. I find that two main factors have affected Japan's current account since 1980: demographics and productivity growth. The declining birthrate and aging population have led to a decrease in the savings rate, thereby exerting downward pressure on the current account. Conversely, the rate of productivity growth has declined, resulting in an upward push on the current account. Consequently, Japan has maintained a current account surplus. This research project also conducts a future projection of Japan's current account based on population projections. Japan's declining birthrate and aging population will continue to suppress the current account, and there is a possibility that the current account may become negative in the future.

Free Research Field

経済政策

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究課題の学術的意義は日本の経常収支の決定要因を明らかにしたことである。多くの国や地域の経常収支の決定要因が分析されてきたが、日本の経常収支を扱った研究は限られており、人口動態と生産性成長率が主要因であることを指摘したことに意義がある。社会的意義は日本の経常収支の長期的見通しを示したことである。経常収支は一国の対外的な経済取引を表したものであり、国内の貯蓄や投資のバランスも表している。経済政策を運営するための重要な指標の一つであるため、少子高齢化の進展により今後も低下圧力がかかることを明らかにしたことの意義は大きい。