Heterogeneous air traffic flow modeling and congestion mechanism clarification

2020 Fiscal Year Research-status Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K14855
• Research Institution: Japan Aerospace EXploration Agency
• Principal Investigator: アンドレエバ森 アドリアナ 国立研究開発法人宇宙航空研究開発機構, 航空技術部門, 研究開発員 (30747499)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: cellular automata / air traffic flow / model / radar data

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

This research proposes the use of cellular automata (CA), in particular the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model to model air traffic flow in the terminal area of a busy airport. Using CA, airspace can be coarse-grained into cells, with each cell having two discrete states: either empty or occupied by an aircraft. In CA, time advances with discrete steps. At each time step, the progress of each aircraft, i.e. how many cells it will go forward, is updated based on the neighboring cells’ availability and position updating rules. In JFY2020, we analyzed real radar data available from Japan Civil Aviation Bureau and determined the optimal size of the cells and time steps necessary to build the CA model. We also verified these parameters can adequately describe non-congested traffic flow.

Current Status of Research Progress

3: Progress in research has been slightly delayed.

Reason

In the original plan for JFY2020, we aimed at 1) developing a CA model of current air traffic in Japan and verify it against past radar data available from Japan Civil Aviation Bureau, and 2) investigating SST performance characteristics and identify key distinguishing parameters which need to be reflected in the heterogeneous traffic flow model. The CA modelling is going on schedule, but the SST performance investigation is slightly delayed. The main reason is that the author planned to use technical conferences and stakeholders’ interviews to collect detailed information, and these have not been possible due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Online research has been ongoing, however.

Strategy for Future Research Activity

In JFY2021, the author will 1) continue work on SST performance characteristics investigation and their integration in the current CA traffic model to 2) develop a traffic scenario including both orthodox and SST flights. Modelling of both congested and non-congested traffic will be necessary, so model parameters might need to be optimized to better reflect real-world data. The slight delay incurred in the first year of the research will be compensated for by online investigation and remote interviews.

Causes of Carryover

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, no international travel for conference attendance was possible, which led to a decrease in travel and miscellaneous expenses.