2020 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
Urban shoreline amplification of storm surge during extreme tropical cyclones: Current and future flood risks
| Project/Area Number |
20K15003
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
ウェッブ エイドリアン 京都大学, 防災研究所, 特定研究員 (00752172)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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| Keywords | storm surge / coastal flooding / tropical cyclones / meshless model / climate dataset |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Extreme tropical cyclones can generate storm surges that pose a serious flood risk for many coastal communities. Complex urban shorelines can locally amplify storm surge in ways that are different from more natural coasts. The purpose of this research is to identify main properties that amplify storm surge and better understand present and future flood risks that urban coastal communities face.
The aims of this research project are being carried out using numerical modeling. A high-resolution storm surge model is being developed and coupled with a large-ensemble climate dataset in order to quantify changes in urban flood risk (that are caused by shoreline features or tropical cyclone changes). This research is being conducted in three phases: meshless modeling, storm surge simulation, and generalization.
Phase 1 (model development) began in FY2020 and uses a meshless (spatially-flexible) finite difference numerical scheme. The new model is being developed with the assistance of two international experts at the University of Colorado Boulder. Currently, a prototype has been set up for the first test case, Osaka Bay. In addition, a new tropical cyclone track dataset (Version 2) has been created for the mega-ensemble climate dataset d4PDF (Database for Policy Decision Making for Future Climate Change), which will be used to help simulate thousands of flood events under present and future climate conditions.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
Collaboration with international experts was delayed initially by several months in FY2020. However, research on the project is progressing smoothly now.
During the first half of the project (Phase 1), the main research goal is to set up and validate the new meshless model. Currently, different types of boundary conditions are being tested within the model. Once boundary testing is complete, model setups for the test cases will be validated using data from historic flood events (e.g., Typhoon Jebi in 2018 for Osaka Bay).
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
A planned overseas visit to work with international collaborators has changed. We now plan to host two researchers instead in late FY2021.
Accepted presentations for two conferences (international and domestic) were cancelled in FY2020 by the event organizers. We now plan on attending several virtual conferences during FY2021 to present on the different stages of the project. We also plan on attending several in-person conferences in FY2022 to present the main findings. In addition, we plan on writing several publications and conference proceedings.
There are no other changes. During the second half of the project (Phases 2 and 3), large-ensemble climate simulations will be conducted with modified bathymetries to quantify flooding amplified by different urban shoreline features. In addition, these results will also be generalized for 20-30 coastal communities.
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| Causes of Carryover |
A planned overseas visit to work with international collaborators in FY2020 was changed. We now plan to host two international collaborators in late FY2021 instead.
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Research Products
(2 results)
