2021 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
Urban shoreline amplification of storm surge during extreme tropical cyclones: Current and future flood risks
| Project/Area Number |
20K15003
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
ウェッブ エイドリアン 京都大学, 防災研究所, 特定研究員 (00752172)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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| Keywords | storm surge / coastal flooding / tropical cyclones / meshless model / climate dataset |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Extreme tropical cyclones can generate storm surges that pose a serious flood risk for many coastal communities. Complex urban shorelines can locally amplify storm surge in ways that are different from more natural coasts. The purpose of this research is to identify main properties that amplify storm surge and better understand present and future flood risks that urban coastal communities face. A high-resolution storm surge model is being developed and coupled with a large-ensemble climate dataset in order to quantify changes in urban flood risk. This research is being conducted in two main phases: modeling and simulation.
Work on Phase 1 (model development) continued in FY2021 with the assistance of two international experts. A prototype has been developed that uses a meshless (spatially-flexible) finite difference numerical scheme. Currently, the prototype is being used to investigate the role bathymetry plays in urban storm surge amplification in Osaka Bay (e.g., depth, shape, complexity). Parallel work on Phase 2 (ensemble simulation) began in FY2021. The ensemble storm surge simulations are forced with tropical cyclone track data that is derived from the mega-ensemble climate dataset d4PDF (Database for Policy Decision Making for Future Climate Change). A newer version (Version 3) of the tropical cyclone dataset was generated to improve track detection and remove non-flood-event storms.
Research results from this project were presented at four international and two domestic conferences and workshops in FY2021.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
3: Progress in research has been slightly delayed.
Reason
Collaboration with international partners was hindered during FY2021 due to COVID 19 travel restrictions. Two planned collaboration visits - to both visit and host international collaborators - were postponed and eventually canceled (after the emergence of Omicron). While collaboration has been able to continue (via online meetings, etc.), model development and testing has progressed slower than initially anticipated.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
One of the goals of Phase 1 is to identify 3-5 different urban shoreline features that are potentially important for shoreline amplification. The importance of these features will be quantified using ensemble simulations. A new tropical cyclone track dataset (that was generated in FY2021) will be used to simulate thousands of flood events under present and future climate conditions to test these shoreline features and generalize results.
Research progress will continue to be presented at domestic and international conferences. A domestic conference session has been organized in early FY2022 to facilitate discussion and collaboration in Japan around storm surge and coastal-related hazards. In addition, the main findings will be presented during a three-week international workshop in mid FY2022. And finally, another potential trip to visit international collaborators is currently planned in late FY2022 to discuss publication of the research.
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| Causes of Carryover |
Two planned collaboration meetings with international collaborators (both visit and host) in FY2021 have been postponed. We currently plan to visit and host the collaborators in FY2022 instead.
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Research Products
(10 results)
