2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Multidimensional risk diversification for conserving coastal wetlands under climate change uncertainty
| Project/Area Number |
20K20027
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 64060:Environmental policy and social systems-related
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| Research Institution | Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University |
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Principal Investigator |
Shah Payal 沖縄科学技術大学院大学, サイエンステクノロジーグループ, サイエンス・テクノロジーアソシエイト (30773220)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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| Keywords | modern portfolio theory / climate change / conservation policy / real options |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Modern portfolio theory is used to guide conservation efforts aimed at reducing climate chnage driven uncertainty in future conservation outcomes. However, standard portfolio theory has two main shortcomings: 1) it is information intensive and cannot be applied for fine-sclae conservation planning; and 2) it is static in nature and fails to accountfor temporal changes associated with climate uncertainty. We modify the portfolio optimization probelm to address these problems. We identify and compare three robust statistical estimators that can be used for systematic conservation planning under climate change with insufficient information. We also combine the standard portfolio theory framework with Marxan to minimize the risk of climate uncertainty for fine scale conservation planning. Finally, we combine protfolio theory with real options analyses to develop a framework that can consider both spatial and temporal uncertainties associated with climate change in conservation settings.
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| Free Research Field |
Environmental Economics
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
Climate change poses dire threats to species, biodiversity and ecosystem services and creates challenges for conservation planning. The methods developed in this project can help conservation planners design effective policy that can efficiently manage the risk from climate uncertainty.
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