Measuring the global health burden and economic consequence of micronutrient deficiency under climate change impact and mitigation policy

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K20031
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 64060:Environmental policy and social systems-related
• Research Institution: Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (2021-2022); National Institute for Environmental Studies (2020)
• Principal Investigator: Wu Wenchao 国立研究開発法人国際農林水産業研究センター, 社会科学領域, 研究員 (50868693)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: climate change / hidden hunger / nutrient deficiency / climate mitigation

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study revealed that elevated carbon dioxide level under future emission could impose substantial risk to nutrient deficiency, particularly for micronutrients, including protein, iron, and zinc. In the high CO2 concentration scenario, the percentage of population under protein, iron, and zinc deficiency will increase. In addition, the impact has distributional effect. Population in the low income class tend to suffer higher nutritional loss compared to the high income class. Meanwhile, stringent climate mitigation policy could also increase the risk of nutrient deficiency due to higher food prices and lower income. Simulation anslysis shows that dietary change (i.e., replacing certain of ruminant meat with fish) could alleviate nutrient deficiency and contribute to climate mitigation.

Free Research Field

食料安全保障、気候変動、緩和策

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、大気中の二酸化炭素の上昇と気候変動が、人間の栄養状態、特に微量栄養素の欠乏に広く影響を与えていることを明らかにした。また、二酸化炭素の排出が栄養に及ぼす不平等な問題も示した。したがって、SDGsの飢餓ゼロの目標を達成するために、対策を実施する必要がある。