Construction of the wildland fire danger forecast system in Indonesia

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K20738
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Medium-sized Section 4:Geography, cultural anthropology, folklore, and related fields
• Research Institution: Nara University
• Principal Investigator: KIMURA Keiji 奈良大学, 文学部, 教授 (30294276)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-07-30 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 地下水位予測 / インドネシア / 熱帯泥炭地 / 気象シミュレーション / 森林火災 / 合成開口レーダ / 土壌水分量 / 現地観測データ

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The meteorological numerical simulation WRF covered a multi-year period across Indonesia. Ground water level predictions were made from the calculated soil moisture content by WRF. Field observation data to validate the simulation results were obtained from an Indonesian government research institute and used after a quality check. As a result, very high correlation results with coefficient determination exceeding 0.9 were obtained.
Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) analysis was also used to estimate soil moisture content in peatlands and to estimate ground water levels. As a result, areal estimation of soil moisture content/ground water level in Indonesian peatlands was also attempted, but the correlations were low when extensive analysis was carried out for multiple sites. As for this method, more studies are needed to improve the accuracy of the method.

Free Research Field

地理学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

インドネシアの泥炭地における地下水位の推定が可能になったことから、このパラメータと相関が高い、泥炭地火災の予測に応用することができる。現地における火の始末や、火災危険警報の発出、消防隊の編制や準備などが可能となる。また、熱帯泥炭地には非常に多くの炭素が蓄積されており、泥炭地火災を抑制した結果、放出される二酸化炭素量（温室効果ガスの代表例とされる）が減少することにより、地球温暖化の促進が少しでも弱まることと考えられる。