Forecasting catastrophic collapses in island forest ecosystems following decline in endangered keystone species

2021 Fiscal Year Research-status Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K21864
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: Vincenot C.E. 京都大学, 情報学研究科, 助教 (80751908)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-07-30 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: simulation / mechanistic model / regimen shift / ecosystem collapse / pollination / bat / seed dispersal / forest regeneration

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

We experienced delay due to COVID restrictions (see below). However, we have achieved last year preliminary data collection, submitted one journal paper, and reviewed potential simulation model structures.

Current Status of Research Progress

4: Progress in research has been delayed.

Reason

As said, COVID travel restrictions have made data collection for this project impossible for the first half of this project's duration. Furthermore, related disturbances to other projects have also impacted the planning of the present one. Overall, we expect to have to extend this project's duration by 1 year to lead it to its intended successful end.

Strategy for Future Research Activity

As COVID-related restrictions have slowly been relaxed over the last months, we now hope to be able to resume the project and lead it to its fullest development. We have already planned data collection in the next months as well as the start of model implementation during an extensive stay at collaborators in Toulouse (France) at the end of the calendar year.

Causes of Carryover

Basically, the project budget and its intended use remain the same as previously described, but the budget needs to be shifted due to the delay experienced (see point above).