Program evaluation of non-pharmaceutical interventions against CIVD-19 combined with medical capacity expansion

2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K22086
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: 0107:Economics, business administration, and related fields
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Iwamoto Yasushi 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 教授 (40193776)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-09-11 – 2021-03-31
• Keywords: 新型コロナウイルス感染症 / 政策評価

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The model, which relates economic activity to the epidemic of infectious diseases, provides a theoretical basis for designing policies that maximize the welfare of society, taking account of health and the economy simultaneously. Restriction of economic activities also suppresses the epidemic, and while there exists a trade-off between health and economy, it may be possible to increase efficiency by taking measures to restrict activities by selecting targets, compared to uniform restriction of activities.
In Japan's countermeasures against COVID-19, economic activity was restricted due to the extremely limited medical resources (hospital beds for infectious diseases) available to cure the infectious diseases. Using the SIS model, which can analyze steady-state conditions, we develop a conceptual framework for the benefits and costs of policies to alleviate medical resource constraints.

Free Research Field

公共経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

新型コロナウイルス感染症対策は大きな経済的影響をもたらしたことから、その効果と経済的影響を衡量して評価する厚生経済学的分析を行うことは、適切な対策の実施のために不可欠である。また、流行初期に各国でとられた広範囲の経済活動の制限よりも、費用対効果の高い対策を立案、実施することが求められている。この課題を包括できる費用便益分析のモデル化を行い、具体的な手段の立案に資するために、(1)経済活動制限が必要となった場合にも制限の対象を選択し、限定的なものとすること、(2)感染症に対応する日本の医療資源が先進諸国に比較して低い問題を是正すること、の意義を分析した。