Uncertainty Quantification of Extreme Weather Fields and Development of an Advanced Building Damage Model for Urban Risk Assessment

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K22444
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: 0304:Architecture, building engineering, and related fields
• Research Institution: Yokohama National University (2023); Tokyo Institute of Technology (2020-2022)
• Principal Investigator: Kawaguchi Masaharu 横浜国立大学, 大学院環境情報研究院, 非常勤教員 (70884609)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-09-11 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 都市防災 / 不確実性 / アンサンブル解析 / 乱流 / LES / 台風 / 竜巻 / 連成解析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Hybrid analyses of meteorological modeling and engineering large-eddy simulations were performed on ensembles representing uncertainties in the flow structures of meteorological disturbances for a typhoon and the paths for a tornado, and ensemble big data of meteorological fields and flow fields in the urban area were generated. For the typhoon case, features of the flow structure in the extreme weather events were clarified. It is shown that meteorological disturbances are statistically likely to enhance wind speed fluctuations in urban areas. The uncertainty of the maximum instantaneous wind speed was also evaluated. For tornadoes, the uncertainty of the spatial distribution of maximum instantaneous wind speeds in actual urban areas was analyzed. A coupled program was developed to represent building deformation and vibrating behavior within a large-degree-of-freedom analysis to improve damage estimation models.

Free Research Field

風工学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本課題では，大気乱流を適切に取り扱った解析手法により，顕著台風の境界層が詳細に解像され，構造的な特徴が示された。また，これまで工学的な見地からは十分に明らかにされていなかった地表近傍での強風発生に対する気象擾乱の影響について評価が実施され，強風発生の不確実性に対する定性的・定量的な知見が得られた。これらの結果は，将来的な耐風設計の改良を行う際の基礎的な資料となることが期待される。さらに市街地の強風被害のリスク推定や減災手法の検討においても活用できるものと考えられる。