2011 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Epidemics and evolution on the commuter network in metropolitan area
| Project/Area Number |
21370009
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Ecology/Environment
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| Research Institution | The Graduate University for Advanced Studies |
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Principal Investigator |
SASAKI Akira 総合研究大学院大学, 先導科学研究科, 教授 (90211937)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2009 – 2011
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| Keywords | 空間明示的疫学モデル / 交通流動ネットワーク / インフルエンザ / ウイルス強毒株変異 / 伝染病防除政策 / 口蹄疫 / 農場ベースモデル / 分岐過程 |
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| Research Abstract |
Epidemic dynamics of an infectious disease spreading over the commute network in Tokyo metropolitan area is analyzed using a simple mathematical model. The model is formulated based on the meta-population connected by commuter trains where each population is interconnected by commuter flows. Here, the actual data from the Urban Transportation Census(Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism) is used to simulate the movements of commuters. The effect of infectiousness of pathogen and the structure of commute network are investigated and the following results are obtained. The probability of global epidemic and the final size of global epidemic are mainly determined by the joint distribution of home and work population sizes, but is insensitive to the geographical or topological structure of the network.
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