2011 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Invention of Political Methodology in Japan : A Case of Statistical Model of Position Assignment of the Liberal Democratic Party Government
| Project/Area Number |
21653011
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Politics
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| Research Institution | Gakushuin University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2009 – 2011
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| Keywords | マルコフ連鎖モンテ・カルロ法 / 人事 / 自民党 / 日本政治 |
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| Research Abstract |
I develop a Bayesian statistical model which estimates the "power score" of positions and legislators simultaneously by observing that the legislators assume the positions. The model also estimates the effect of seniority and the previous vote results on legislators' power score. By way of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, it turns out that the prime minister is higher than the other ministers on the power score scale except finance, administrative management, and "the others" and that the previous vote results does not have a significant effect. This model is applicable not only to the Liberal Democratic Government in Japanese politics but also to bureaucracy and business firms in general.
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