2012 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Toward an Explanation of Expectation Formation: Analysis Using a Direct Questionnaire Survey
| Project/Area Number |
21730264
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Public finance/Monetary economics
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| Research Institution | Kyushu University (2010-2012)
Nagoya University of Commerce & Business (2009) |
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Principal Investigator |
KINARI Yusuke 九州大学, 経済学研究院, 准教授 (10509855)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2009 – 2012
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| Keywords | 期待形成 / 自信過剰 / 楽観的・悲観的期待 |
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| Research Abstract |
The purpose of this study is to reveal properties of people’s expectations, which form the basis of Economics, using a direct questionnaire survey on stock price forecasts. More than 8,000 forecasts on Nikkei 225 Stock Price Index show that people tend to have pessimisticbeliefs when the Index goes up but optimistic beliefs when it goes down. In addition, it finds that people tend to have overconfident belief irrelevant with the movement of the Index.These results imply that people have a status quo bias when they forecast future stock prices
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