2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
A Bayesian approach to the program evaluation of infrastructures
| Project/Area Number |
21830115
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Economic statistics
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| Research Institution | National Institute for Environmental Studies |
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Principal Investigator |
MIYAWAKI Koji National Institute for Environmental Studies, 社会環境システム研究領域, NIESポスドクフェロー (40550249)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2009 – 2010
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| Keywords | 経済統計学 |
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| Research Abstract |
Regarding the estimation of the residential gas demand function under decreasing block rate pricing, I elaborated a Bayesian estimation method for the exact economic model. Obtained results are collected in an article, which is registered as the discussion paper and is submitted for possible publication to the refereed journal. Next, regarding the program evaluation of the main line railroad, I developed a new statistical model that extends the classical model for the treatment effect. For this model, I constructed a Bayesian estimation method, which is checked by numerical examples. I also applied the model and the method to the empirical analysis of the high-speed railway line in Kyushu.
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